MSGID: 1:317/3 63f05465   
   PID: hpt/lnx 1.9.0-cur 2019-01-08   
   TID: hpt/lnx 1.9.0-cur 2019-01-08   
    Feedback loops make climate action even more urgent, scientists say   
      
      
     Date:   
         February 17, 2023   
     Source:   
         Oregon State University   
     Summary:   
         Researchers have identified 26 global warming accelerators known   
         as amplifying feedback loops that the researchers say aren't   
         being properly included in climate models. They note that the   
         findings add urgency to the need to respond to the climate crisis   
         and provide a roadmap for policymakers aiming to avert the most   
         severe consequences of a warming planet.   
      
      
         Facebook Twitter Pinterest LinkedIN Email   
   FULL STORY   
   ==========================================================================   
   An international collaboration led by Oregon State University scientists   
   has identified 27 global warming accelerators known as amplifying feedback   
   loops, including some that the researchers say may not be fully accounted   
   for in climate models.   
      
      
   ==========================================================================   
   They note that the findings, published today in the journal One Earth,   
   add urgency to the need to respond to the climate crisis and provide a   
   roadmap for policymakers aiming to avert the most severe consequences   
   of a warming planet.   
      
   In climate science, amplifying feedback loops are situations where a   
   climate- caused alteration can trigger a process that causes even more   
   warming, which in turn intensifies the alteration. An example would be   
   warming in the Arctic, leading to melting sea ice, which results in   
   further warming because sea water absorbs rather than reflects solar   
   radiation.   
      
   OSU College of Forestry postdoctoral scholar Christopher Wolf and   
   distinguished professor William Ripple led the study, which in all looked   
   at 41 climate change feedbacks.   
      
   "Many of the feedback loops we examined significantly increase warming   
   because of their connection to greenhouse gas emissions," Wolf said. "To   
   the best of our knowledge, this is the most extensive list available   
   of climate feedback loops, and not all of them are fully considered in   
   climate models. What's urgently needed is more research and modeling   
   and an accelerated cutback of emissions."  The paper makes two calls to   
   action for "immediate and massive" emissions reductions:   
       * Minimize short-term warming given that "climate disasters" in the   
       form of   
         wildfires, coastal flooding, permafrost thaw, intense storms and   
         other extreme weather are already occurring.   
      
       * Mitigate the possible major threats looming from climate tipping   
       points   
         that are drawing ever-closer due to the prevalence of the many   
         amplifying feedback loops. A tipping point is a threshold after   
         which a change in a component of the climate system becomes   
         self-perpetuating.   
      
   "Transformative, socially just changes in global energy and   
   transportation, short-lived air pollution, food production, nature   
   preservation and the international economy, together with population   
   policies based on education and equality, are needed to meet these   
   challenges in both the short and long term," Ripple said. "It's too late   
   to fully prevent the pain of climate change, but if we take meaningful   
   steps soon while prioritizing human basic needs and social justice, it   
   could still be possible to limit the harm."  Ripple, Wolf and co-authors   
   from the University of Exeter, the Potsdam Institute for Climate   
   Impact Research, the Woodwell Climate Research Center and Terrestrial   
   Ecosystems Research Associates considered both biological and physical   
   feedbacks. Biological feedbacks include forest dieback, soil carbon loss   
   and wildfire; physical feedbacks involve changes such as reduced snow   
   cover, increased Antarctic rainfall and shrinking arctic sea ice.   
      
   Even comparatively modest warming is expected to heighten the likelihood   
   that the Earth will cross various tipping points, the researchers say,   
   causing big changes in the planet's climate system and potentially   
   strengthening the amplifying feedbacks.   
      
   "Climate models may be underestimating the acceleration in global   
   temperature change because they aren't fully considering this large and   
   related set of amplifying feedback loops," Wolf said. "The accuracy   
   of climate models is crucial as they help guide mitigation efforts   
   by telling policymakers about the expected effects of human-caused   
   greenhouse gas emissions. While recent climate models do a much   
   better job of incorporating diverse feedback loops, more progress is   
   needed."  Emissions have risen substantially over the last century, the   
   researchers note, despite several decades of warnings that they should   
   be significantly curbed.   
      
   The scientists say interactions among feedback loops could cause a   
   permanent shift away from the Earth's current climate state to one that   
   threatens the survival of many humans and other life forms.   
      
   "In the worst case, if amplifying feedbacks are strong enough, the   
   result is likely tragic climate change that's moved beyond anything   
   humans can control," Ripple said. "We need a rapid transition toward   
   integrated Earth system science because the climate can only be fully   
   understood by considering the functioning and state of all Earth systems   
   together. This will require large-scale collaboration, and the result   
   would provide better information for policymakers."  In addition to the   
   27 amplifying climate feedbacks the scientists studied were seven that are   
   characterized as dampening -- they act to stabilize the climate system. An   
   example is carbon dioxide fertilization, where rising concentrations of   
   atmospheric CO2 lead to increasing carbon uptake by vegetation.   
      
   The effects of the remaining seven feedbacks, including increased   
   atmospheric dust and reduced ocean stability, are not yet known.   
      
   The paper in One Earth has a corresponding website (https://   
   scientistswarning.forestry.oregonstate.edu/climate_feedbacks) that   
   features more about climate feedback loops, including infographics and   
   interactive animations.   
      
       * RELATED_TOPICS   
             o Earth_&_Climate   
                   # Climate # Global_Warming # Environmental_Issues #   
                   Environmental_Awareness   
             o Science_&_Society   
                   # Environmental_Policies # Resource_Shortage #   
                   Ocean_Policy # World_Development   
       * RELATED_TERMS   
             o Global_warming_controversy o   
             Global_climate_model o Global_warming o   
             Consensus_of_scientists_regarding_global_warming   
             o Scientific_opinion_on_climate_change   
             o Climate o Climate_change_mitigation o   
             Temperature_record_of_the_past_1000_years   
      
   ==========================================================================   
   Story Source: Materials provided by Oregon_State_University. Original   
   written by Steve Lundeberg. Note: Content may be edited for style   
   and length.   
      
      
   ==========================================================================   
   Journal Reference:   
      1. William J. Ripple, Christopher Wolf, Timothy M. Lenton, Jillian   
      W. Gregg,   
         Susan M. Natali, Philip B. Duffy, Johan Rockstro"m, Hans Joachim   
         Schellnhuber. Many risky feedback loops amplify the need for climate   
         action. One Earth, 2023; 6 (2): 86 DOI: 10.1016/j.oneear.2023.01.004   
   ==========================================================================   
      
   Link to news story:   
   https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2023/02/230217120546.htm   
      
   --- up 50 weeks, 4 days, 10 hours, 50 minutes   
    * Origin: -=> Castle Rock BBS <=- Now Husky HPT Powered! (1:317/3)   
   SEEN-BY: 15/0 106/201 114/705 123/120 153/7715 226/30 227/114 229/110   
   SEEN-BY: 229/111 112 113 114 307 317 400 426 428 470 664 700 292/854   
   SEEN-BY: 298/25 305/3 317/3 320/219 396/45   
   PATH: 317/3 229/426