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   PID: hpt/lnx 1.9.0-cur 2019-01-08   
   TID: hpt/lnx 1.9.0-cur 2019-01-08   
    Devastating cost of future coastal flooding for many developing nations   
   predicted in new study    
      
     Date:   
         February 7, 2023   
     Source:   
         University of Melbourne   
     Summary:   
         New global modelling predicts the devastating socioeconomic impacts   
         of future extreme coastal flooding for developing nations caused   
         by climate change, with Asia, West Africa and Egypt facing severe   
         costs in the coming decades.   
      
      
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   FULL STORY   
   ==========================================================================   
   New global modelling predicts the devastating socioeconomic impacts   
   of future extreme coastal flooding for developing nations caused by   
   climate change, with Asia, West Africa and Egypt facing severe costs in   
   the coming decades.   
      
      
   ==========================================================================   
   Published in Frontiers in Marine Science,the study sought to determine   
   the expected annual costs and number of people impacted by episodic   
   coastal flooding across the globe as sea levels rise, rating the impact   
   of flooding for every country across specified scenarios. The study   
   found flooding would disproportionately affect developing nations,   
   given their reduced capacity to pay for improved coastal defences and   
   their geographic vulnerability.   
      
   Led by University of Melbourne Dr Ebru Kirezci and Professor of   
   Engineering Ian Young, the study found many developing nations would   
   experience expected annual damage costing over five per cent of their   
   national Gross Domestic Product (GDP) if no coastal defence adaptation   
   measures are taken to mitigate extreme coastal flooding impact.   
      
   By contrast, almost all developed nations would experience expected   
   annual damage of less than three per cent of national GDP because of   
   their capacity to undertake coastal defence adaptation measures.   
      
   Coastal defence adaptation measures include raising or building sea   
   walls or dykes as sea levels rise, and natural interventions such as   
   improving drainage and sand dunes or mangrove plantations.   
      
   "This research shows the human and financial cost of climate change and   
   how unequally its effects will be felt," Professor Young said.   
      
   "Developing nations will be devastated, both in terms of people impacted   
   and their economies. If the money to mitigate this impact in developing   
   countries is not found, communities will be forced into coastal retreat   
   and there will be significant social disruption, including an increase   
   in climate refugees across borders."  The researchers created a database   
   to model and analyse projected extreme coastal flooding in over 9000   
   locations for the years 2050 and 2100. Using 2015 data as a baseline,   
   two 'coastal defence' scenarios were modelled -- one with no additional   
   coastal defence adaptation measures, and the other with additional   
   coastal defence adaptation measures.   
      
   The modelling demonstrated that these measures will play a crucial role in   
   reducing the impact of extreme coastal flooding for nations. The modelling   
   predicted the most severe impacts by the year 2100 for Asia, West Africa   
   and Egypt, irrespective of the adaptation scenario. The nations and   
   regions likely to be most affected included Suriname, Vietnam, Macao   
   (Special Administrative Region of China), Myanmar, Bangladesh, Kuwait,   
   Mauritania, Guyana, Guinea- Bissau, Egypt and Malaysia.   
      
   Dr Kirezci said episodic coastal flooding can be caused by storm surge,   
   high tides, breaking waves and climate change-induced sea level rise.   
      
   "Our model considers tides, storm surges, breaking waves and mean   
   sea level rising. It also accounts for different populations, GDP and   
   greenhouse gas scenarios by 2100," she said.   
      
   Without adaptation measures, the modelling predicted the number of people   
   affected by extreme coastal flooding could increase from 34 million   
   people per year in 2015 to 246 million people by 2100. The expected   
   annual global cost of extreme coastal flooding damage could increase   
   from 0.3 per cent of global GDP in 2015 to 2.9 per cent by 2100.   
      
   However, if coastal defence measures match the projected rise in sea   
   levels, by 2100, the number of people affected would be around 119   
   million people per year, with the expected annual global cost reduced by a   
   factor of almost three, to 1.1 per cent of GDP. The researchers said that   
   finding the funds to pay for these measures will be an enormous challenge.   
      
   "There is no doubt this is a wicked problem, which initiatives such as   
   the recent United Nations Climate Change conference COP 27, held in Egypt,   
   are grappling with," Professor Young said.   
      
       * RELATED_TOPICS   
             o Earth_&_Climate   
                   # Floods # Global_Warming # Oceanography # Climate   
             o Science_&_Society   
                   # Ocean_Policy # World_Development # Resource_Shortage   
                   # Funding_Policy   
       * RELATED_TERMS   
             o Climate_change_mitigation o Global_warming o   
             Consensus_of_scientists_regarding_global_warming   
             o Global_warming_controversy o   
             IPCC_Report_on_Climate_Change_-_2007 o Climate_engineering o   
             Gulf_Stream o Kyoto_Protocol   
      
   ==========================================================================   
   Story Source: Materials provided by University_of_Melbourne. Note:   
   Content may be edited for style and length.   
      
      
   ==========================================================================   
   Journal Reference:   
      1. Ebru Kirezci, Ian R. Young, Roshanka Ranasinghe, Daniel Lincke,   
      Jochen   
         Hinkel. Global-scale analysis of socioeconomic impacts of coastal   
         flooding over the 21st century. Frontiers in Marine Science, 2023;   
         9 DOI: 10.3389/fmars.2022.1024111   
   ==========================================================================   
      
   Link to news story:   
   https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2023/02/230207144251.htm   
      
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