MSGID: 1:317/3 63db3c74   
   PID: hpt/lnx 1.9.0-cur 2019-01-08   
   TID: hpt/lnx 1.9.0-cur 2019-01-08   
    Climate change may cut US forest inventory by a fifth this century   
      
      
     Date:   
         February 1, 2023   
     Source:   
         North Carolina State University   
     Summary:   
         A study found that under more severe climate warming scenarios,   
         the inventory of trees used for timber in the continental United   
         States could decline by as much as 23% by 2100. The largest   
         inventory losses would occur in two of the leading timber regions   
         in the U.S., which are both in the South.   
      
      
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   FULL STORY   
   ==========================================================================   
   A study led by a North Carolina State University researcher found that   
   under more severe climate warming scenarios, the inventory of trees used   
   for timber in the continental United States could decline by as much   
   as 23% by 2100. The largest inventory losses would occur in two of the   
   leading timber regions in the U.S., which are both in the South.   
      
      
   ==========================================================================   
   Researchers say their findings show modest impacts on forest product   
   prices through the end of the century, but suggest bigger impacts in   
   terms of storing carbon in U.S. forests. Two-thirds of U.S. forests are   
   classified as timberlands.   
      
   "We already see some inventory decline at baseline in our analysis, but   
   relative to that, you could lose, additionally, as much as 23% of the U.S.   
      
   forest inventory," said the study's lead author Justin Baker, associate   
   professor of forestry and environmental resources at North Carolina State   
   University. "That's a pretty dramatic change in standing forests."   
   In the study, which is published in Forest Policy and Economics,   
   researchers used computer modeling to project how 94 individual tree   
   species in the continental United States will grow under six climate   
   warming scenarios through 2100. They also considered the impact of two   
   different economic scenarios on demand growth for forestry products. The   
   researchers compared their outcomes for forest inventory, harvest, prices   
   and carbon sequestration to scenarios with no climate change. Researchers   
   said their methods could provide a more nuanced picture of the future   
   forest sector under high-impact climate change scenarios compared to   
   other models.   
      
   "Many past studies show a pretty optimistic picture for forests under   
   climate change because they see a big boost in forest growth from   
   additional carbon dioxide in the atmosphere," Baker said. "The effect   
   that carbon dioxide has on photosynthesis in some of those models tends   
   to outweigh the losses you see from precipitation and temperature induced   
   changes in forest productivity and tree mortality. We have a model that   
   is specific to individual tree species, and that allows us to better   
   understand how climate factors influence growth rates and mortality."   
   Researchers found that in certain regions trees would grow more slowly   
   in higher temperatures, and die faster. Combined with increasing harvest   
   levels and greater development pressures, that led to declines in the   
   total tree inventory. They projected the largest losses would be in the   
   Southeast and South-Central regions, which are two of the three most   
   productive timber supply regions in the U.S. Those regions could see tree   
   inventories shrink by as much as 40% by 2095 compared to one of their   
   baseline scenarios. Due to declines in pine products, the researchers   
   projected softwood lumber prices could increase as much as 32% by 2050.   
      
   "We found pretty high levels of sensitivity to warming and precipitation   
   changes for productive pine species in the South, especially when climate   
   change is combined with high forest product demand growth," Baker said.   
      
   However, the researchers projected gains in tree supplies in the Rocky   
   Mountain and Pacific Southwest regions, driven by higher rates of death   
   of certain trees that lead to larger harvests initially, followed by   
   the growth of more heat- tolerant species.   
      
   "These are regions losing a lot of inventory right now due to pests and   
   fire disturbance," Baker said. "What you're seeing is a higher level   
   of replacement with climate adaptive species like juniper, which are   
   more tolerant to future growing conditions."  Combining the effects   
   from all the regions, researchers projected total losses of U.S. tree   
   inventory of 3 to 23% compared to baseline. They projected losses in   
   carbon sequestration in most scenarios, and estimated the value of lost   
   carbon stored in U.S. forests up to $5.5 billion per year.   
      
   They found the economic impact of climate change on the overall   
   U.S. forest products industry value could range from a loss of as much as   
   $2.6 billion per year -- representing 2.5% of the value of the industry --   
   or a gain in value of more than $200 million per year.   
      
   "We saw that the markets could be more resilient than the forests   
   themselves," Baker said. "Your market effects may seem modest in terms of   
   the effect it has on the consumers and producers, but those impacts are   
   small compared to the carbon sequestration value that forests provide   
   on an annual basis."  Researchers say more studies are needed to bring   
   the future of U.S. forestry into sharper focus.   
      
   "We don't know a lot about how disturbance-related mortality or loss   
   in tree productivity is going to bear out across the landscape as   
   temperatures get warmer," Baker said. "We did our best to address   
   a couple pieces of the puzzle with temperature and precipitation   
   changes, and interactions between climate and market demand, but a   
   lot more work needs to be done to get a good handle on climate change   
   and forestry."  The study, "Projecting U.S. Forest Management, Market,   
   and Carbon Sequestration Responses to a High-Impact Climate Scenario,"   
   was published online in Forest Policy and Economics.Co-authors included   
   George Van Houtven, Jennifer Phelan, Gregory Latta, Christopher M. Clark,   
   Kemen Austin, Olakunle Sodiya, Sara B.   
      
   Ohrel, John Buckley, Lauren E. Gentile and Jeremy Martinich. The study   
   was funded by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency under contract No.   
      
   68HERH19D0030. The views and opinions expressed in this paper are those   
   of the authors alone and do not necessarily state or reflect those of   
   the EPA, and no official endorsement should be inferred.   
      
       * RELATED_TOPICS   
             o Plants_&_Animals   
                   # Trees # Nature # Endangered_Animals   
             o Earth_&_Climate   
                   # Forest # Global_Warming # Climate   
             o Science_&_Society   
                   # Environmental_Policies # Resource_Shortage #   
                   Ocean_Policy   
       * RELATED_TERMS   
             o Logging o Taiga o Forestry o Climate_change_mitigation o   
             Consensus_of_scientists_regarding_global_warming o Climate o   
             Conifers o Global_warming_controversy   
      
   ==========================================================================   
   Story Source: Materials provided   
   by North_Carolina_State_University. Original written by Laura   
   Oleniacz. Note: Content may be edited for style and length.   
      
      
   ==========================================================================   
   Journal Reference:   
      1. Justin S. Baker, George Van Houtven, Jennifer Phelan, Gregory Latta,   
         Christopher M. Clark, Kemen G. Austin, Olakunle E. Sodiya,   
         Sara B. Ohrel, John Buckley, Lauren E. Gentile, Jeremy   
         Martinich. Projecting U.S. forest management, market,   
         and carbon sequestration responses to a high-impact climate   
         scenario. Forest Policy and Economics, 2023; 147: 102898 DOI:   
         10.1016/j.forpol.2022.102898   
   ==========================================================================   
      
   Link to news story:   
   https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2023/02/230201134216.htm   
      
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