MSGID: 1:317/3 6279eac1   
   PID: hpt/lnx 1.9.0-cur 2019-01-08   
   TID: hpt/lnx 1.9.0-cur 2019-01-08   
    Future super cyclones would expose many in most vulnerable locations to   
   extreme flooding    
      
     Date:   
         May 9, 2022   
     Source:   
         University of Bristol   
     Summary:   
         A new study has revealed super cyclones, the most intense form of   
         tropical storm, are likely to have a much more devastating impact   
         on people in South Asia in future years.   
      
      
      
   FULL STORY   
   ==========================================================================   
   A new study has revealed super cyclones, the most intense form of tropical   
   storm, are likely to have a much more devastating impact on people in   
   South Asia in future years.   
      
      
   ==========================================================================   
   The international research, led by the University of Bristol, looked   
   at the 2020 Super Cyclone Amphan -- the most costly cyclone to make   
   landfall in South Asia -- and projected its consequences in different   
   scenarios of sea level rise due to global warming.   
      
   Its findings, published today in the Royal Meteorological Society journal   
   Climate Resilience and Sustainability, showed if the release of greenhouse   
   gases into the atmosphere continues at the same scale, more than two and   
   a half times (250%) the population in India would experience flooding   
   of greater than 1 metre, compared to the event in 2020.   
      
   Lead author Dann Mitchell, Professor of Climate Science at the University   
   of Bristol, said: "South Asia is one of the most climate-sensitive regions   
   in the world, with super cyclones causing tens to hundreds of thousands   
   of deaths in historical cases. Comparatively, very little climate impact   
   research has been done in South Asia, despite the Intergovernmental   
   Panel on Climate Change highlighting it as such a critical region.   
      
   "This study, in collaboration with local scientists, provides much-needed   
   climate impact information in one of the most vulnerable regions in   
   the world.   
      
   It presents a critical piece of evidence in support of ramping down our   
   greenhouse gas emissions to achieve the Paris Agreement climate goals,   
   where other lines of evidence all too often focus on high income countries   
   where impacts are lower, and adaptation is more easily achievable."   
   The researchers, which included scientists from Bangladesh, used   
   sophisticated climate model projections to anticipate the scale of those   
   affected by cyclones in the rest of this century.   
      
   Although the increasing numbers of people at risk is anticipated to be   
   more modest in Bangladesh, estimated to rise by 60% to 70%, this factors   
   in declining coastal populations in future. Encouragingly, the research   
   team went on to show if the Paris Agreement climate goals of 2 degrees   
   Celsius warming above pre-industrial levels are adhered to, population   
   exposures to flooding dropped close to zero there.   
      
   But even in this climate warming scenario, the exposures in India   
   still showed an alarming increase of between 50% to 80% are expected to   
   experience flooding in future.   
      
   The main objective of the Paris Agreement, a global framework to tackle   
   climate change, is to hold the global average temperature increase to   
   well below 2DEGC above pre-industrial levels and endeavour to limit the   
   temperature increase to 1.5DEGC.   
      
   Saiful Islam, Professor of Hydrology at the Bangladesh University of   
   Engineering and Technology (BUET), and contributing author of the study,   
   said: "The latest IPCC report has mentioned with high confidence that   
   tropical cyclones with higher intense categories will be more frequent   
   in the future.   
      
   This study shows that population exposure in Bangladesh and India will   
   be increased up to 200% in the future for extreme storm surge flooding   
   (greater than 3 metres) from intense cyclones under high emission   
   scenarios. Hence, a strong, rapid and sustained greenhouse gas reduction   
   is essential to achieve goals of the Paris Agreement and to reduce losses   
   and damages of highly vulnerable countries like Bangladesh."   
      
   ==========================================================================   
   Story Source: Materials provided by University_of_Bristol. Note: Content   
   may be edited for style and length.   
      
      
   ==========================================================================   
   Journal Reference:   
      1. Dann Mitchell, Laurence Hawker, James Savage, Rory Bingham,   
      Natalie S.   
      
         Lord, Md Jamal Uddin Khan, Paul Bates, Fabien Durand, Ahmadul   
         Hassan, Saleemul Huq, Akm Saiful Islam, Yann Krien, Jeffrey   
         Neal, Chris Sampson, Andy Smith, Laurent Testut. Increased   
         population exposure to Amphan‐scale cyclones under future   
         climates. Climate Resilience and Sustainability, 2022; DOI:   
         10.1002/cli2.36   
   ==========================================================================   
      
   Link to news story:   
   https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2022/05/220509100821.htm   
      
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