MSGID: 1:317/3 6274a4c4   
   PID: hpt/lnx 1.9.0-cur 2019-01-08   
   TID: hpt/lnx 1.9.0-cur 2019-01-08   
    Identifying global poverty from space    
      
     Date:   
         May 5, 2022   
     Source:   
         International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis   
     Summary:   
         A new study proposes a novel method to estimate global economic   
         wellbeing using nighttime satellite images.   
      
      
      
   FULL STORY   
   ==========================================================================   
   Despite successes in reducing poverty globally in the last two decades,   
   almost one billion people are still living without access to reliable   
   and affordable electricity, which in turn negatively affects health   
   and welfare, and impedes sustainable development. Knowing where these   
   people are is crucial if aid and infrastructure are to reach them. A   
   new IIASA-led study proposes a novel method to estimate global economic   
   wellbeing using nighttime satellite images.   
      
      
   ==========================================================================   
   Researchers have been using satellite images of Earth at night to study   
   human activity for almost 30 years and it is well established that these   
   images - - commonly referred to as nighttime radiance or nighttime lights   
   -- can help map issues like economic growth, poverty, and inequality,   
   especially in places where data are lacking. In developing countries,   
   areas that are unlit at night generally indicate limited development,   
   while brightly lit areas indicate more developed areas like capital   
   cities where infrastructure is abundant.   
      
   Traditionally, researchers have been more interested in using the   
   data gathered from the lit areas with unlit areas typically being   
   disregarded. In their study just published in Nature Communications,   
   IIASA researchers and colleagues from several other institutions, however,   
   specifically focused on the data from the unlit areas to estimate global   
   economic wellbeing.   
      
   "Whereas previous work has focused more on the relationship between   
   lit areas and economic development, we found that it actually also   
   works the other way around and that unlit areas are a good indicator of   
   poverty. By identifying those unlit areas we can target interventions   
   for poverty alleviation and places to focus on to improve energy access,"   
   explains study author and IIASA Strategic Initiatives Program Director,   
   Steffen Fritz.   
      
   The researchers used a harmonized geo-spatial wealth index for households   
   in various countries across Africa, Asia, and the Americas calculated by   
   the Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) program, which places individual   
   households on a continuous scale of relative wealth from poorer to   
   richer. They then combined this data with data from satellite images   
   of global nighttime lights in these countries and found that 19% of the   
   planet's total settlement footprint had no detectable artificial radiance   
   associated with it. The majority of unlit settlement footprints were   
   found in Africa (39%) and Asia (23%). If only rural unlit infrastructure   
   is considered, these numbers rise to 65% for Africa and 40% for Asia. In   
   almost all countries, the results indicate a clear association between   
   increasing percentages of unlit communities in a country and decreasing   
   economic wellbeing levels.   
      
   "We were able to map and predict the wealth class of around 2.4 million   
   households for 49 countries spread across Africa, Asia, and the Americas   
   based on the percentage of unlit settlements detected using nighttime   
   light satellite images with an overall accuracy of 87%. Surprisingly,   
   there were also relatively large amounts of unlit settlements in developed   
   countries, in particular Europe. There can be several reasons for this   
   result, including the fact that the satellite overpass is after midnight,   
   but it could also be due to conscientious energy and cost saving policies   
   in Europe by homeowners, governments, and industry," says IIASA Novel   
   Data Ecosystems for Sustainability Research Group Leader, Ian McCallum,   
   who led the study.   
      
   The researchers note that government agencies typically prioritize   
   expanding electricity access for urban, rather than rural areas. Rural   
   electrification however holds great promise for increasing wellbeing and   
   can also have significant positive impacts in terms of household income,   
   expenditure, health, and education. The United Nations (UN) Sustainable   
   Development Goals (SDGs) specifically include 'access to affordable,   
   reliable, sustainable and modern energy for all' and while efforts are   
   underway to achieve this goal, and substantial progress has been made   
   over the past two decades, indications are that governments and industry   
   will struggle to keep pace with expected population growth.   
      
   In sub-Saharan Africa in particular, projections indicate that over   
   300 million people will still be living in extreme poverty by 2030. The   
   impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic are likely to push an additional 88 to   
   115 million people into extreme poverty in 2030, setting back the UN's   
   goals to reduce poverty by around three years. Studies like this one can   
   however help track developing countries as they electrify and developed   
   nations as they reduce their light- energy consumption.   
      
   "If applied over time, the method we used in our study could provide   
   opportunities to track wellbeing and progress toward the SDGs. In   
   terms of policy, it can help better inform energy policy around   
   the globe and can also be helpful in shaping aid policy by ensuring   
   that we are reaching those remote rural areas that are likely energy   
   poor. In addition, it could be useful to detect signs of sustainable and   
   environmental management of lighting in the developed world," concludes   
   Transformative Institutional and Social Solutions Research Group Leader,   
   Shonali Pachauri.   
      
      
   ==========================================================================   
   Story Source: Materials provided by   
   International_Institute_for_Applied_Systems_Analysis.   
      
   Note: Content may be edited for style and length.   
      
      
   ==========================================================================   
   Journal Reference:   
      1. Ian McCallum, Christopher Conrad Maximillian Kyba, Juan Carlos Laso   
         Bayas, Elena Moltchanova, Matt Cooper, Jesus Crespo Cuaresma,   
         Shonali Pachauri, Linda See, Olga Danylo, Inian Moorthy, Myroslava   
         Lesiv, Kimberly Baugh, Christopher D. Elvidge, Martin Hofer,   
         Steffen Fritz.   
      
         Estimating global economic well-being with unlit settlements. Nature   
         Communications, 2022; 13 (1) DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-30099-9   
   ==========================================================================   
      
   Link to news story:   
   https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2022/05/220505085610.htm   
      
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