MSGID: 1:317/3 627201bd   
   PID: hpt/lnx 1.9.0-cur 2019-01-08   
   TID: hpt/lnx 1.9.0-cur 2019-01-08   
    New portal improves forecasts of devastating storms in West Africa   
    Online tool will enable forecasters to provide communities with more   
   reliable warnings    
      
     Date:   
         May 3, 2022   
     Source:   
         UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology   
     Summary:   
         Storms in the Sahel region, which can reach over 100km in size,   
         have become more extreme since the 1980s due to global warming, with   
         more intense rainfall. An online portal will enable forecasters in   
         West Africa to provide communities with earlier and more reliable   
         warnings about large storms.   
      
      
      
   FULL STORY   
   ==========================================================================   
   An online portal developed by the UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology   
   (UKCEH) will enable forecasters in West Africa to provide communities   
   with earlier and more reliable warnings about large storms.   
      
      
   ==========================================================================   
   Storms in the Sahel region, which can reach over 100km in size, have   
   become more extreme since the 1980s due to global warming, with more   
   intense rainfall.* Severe flooding during the monsoon from June to   
   September causes human and livestock deaths, plus damages property and   
   infrastructure, leaving thousands of people without homes and livelihoods.   
      
   State-of-the-art weather forecast models struggle to predict where new   
   storms will hit and how strong they will be, which makes it difficult to   
   provide warnings to people in affected areas so they can protect their   
   property and livestock or get out of harm's way.   
      
   National forecasting agencies in Africa can already make predictions of   
   how storms will behave in the next couple of hours by observing current   
   atmospheric conditions, and analysing hundreds of historical storms.   
      
   Now, thanks to a recent breakthrough by UKCEH scientists, they can make   
   these short-term forecasts, known as 'nowcasts', for six hours ahead   
   and with a higher degree of accuracy. The new research found drier   
   soils can increase the intensity of storms when they are on the move,   
   affecting where they travel and the amount of rainfall they produce.   
      
   These novel nowcasting predictions and related satellite observations   
   for West Africa are available via UKCEH's new free portal, which has   
   been funded by the Natural Environment Research Council (NERC).   
      
      
      
   ==========================================================================   
   National forecasters can interpret the data and make localised forecasts,   
   sending out warnings to people in areas that are expected to be hit by   
   a storm.   
      
   Last year, as part of a trial of the nowcasting tool, forecasters in   
   Senegal used it to issue a severe weather warning to the public via   
   text message.   
      
   Dr Steven Cole of UKCEH says: "The portal is a great example of how new   
   scientific understanding can be translated into useable real-time tools   
   by working with forecasters. Importantly, this will support communities in   
   West Africa to better manage flood risk from intense rainfall."  A recent   
   study found that using data about land surface temperatures improves   
   predictions about the path and strength of an approaching mesoscale   
   convective system (MCS) up to 12 hours ahead. These 'megastorms' can be   
   bigger than the size of England and unleash over 100mm of rainfall in   
   just an hour.   
      
   "We found a surprising level of predictability of storms from land   
   surface temperatures when testing our methodology on historical data,   
   and West African forecasters are finding our approach very useful for   
   their work," says Professor Chris Taylor of UKCEH.   
      
   "We would expect mesoscale convective systems elsewhere in the world   
   to also be influenced by drier soils. Therefore, our methodology could   
   potentially be used to improve storm and flood warning systems in   
   tropical regions such as South Asia and Australia, as well as parts of   
   USA and South America."  The new nowcasting portal allows forecasters   
   to observe storm clouds in near real-time via satellite and compare   
   them with historical storm behaviour, plus view data on current land   
   surface conditions. The online tool then uses these data, updated every   
   15 minutes, to calculate the probability of a mesoscale convective system   
   reaching different areas of the Sahel between the current time and six   
   hours ahead.   
      
   UKCEH scientists are continuing to work with forecasting services in   
   West Africa to increase the advance warning time and its reliability by   
   combining more factors influencing storm behaviour within their nowcast   
   modelling, in addition to land surface temperature. These include soil   
   moisture, atmospheric humidity, wind conditions and the amount of rainfall   
   there has been in preceding days.   
      
   As part of a collaboration with ANACIM, the national meteorological   
   service in Senegal, UKCEH has also developed short-term forecasts of   
   potential flood impacts and risk in Dakar which are available on the   
   portal. It also hopes to work with other forecasting services to provide   
   this service for other areas.   
      
      
   ==========================================================================   
   Story Source: Materials provided by   
   UK_Centre_for_Ecology_&_Hydrology. Note: Content may be edited for style   
   and length.   
      
      
   ==========================================================================   
   Journal Reference:   
      1. Christopher M Taylor, Cornelia Klein, Cheikh Dione, Douglas   
      J Parker,   
         John Marsham, Cheikh Abdoulahat Diop, Jennifer Fletcher, Abdoul Aziz   
         Saidou Chaibou, Dignon Bertin Nafissa, Valiyaveetil Shamsudheen   
         Semeena, Steven J Cole, Seonaid R Anderson. Nowcasting tracks of   
         severe convective storms in West Africa from observations of land   
         surface state.   
      
         Environmental Research Letters, 2022; 17 (3): 034016 DOI:   
         10.1088/1748- 9326/ac536d   
   ==========================================================================   
      
   Link to news story:   
   https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2022/05/220503190227.htm   
      
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