An ordinary citizen's analysis of our economic situation.   
      
    This is not a professional paper, a PHD thesis in economics,   
    just the view of an ordinary person developed over decades of   
    watching the economy and 63 years of life experience.   
      
    America's national debt is over $14 trillion dollars. Our   
    national debt is nearly equal to 90% of our entire economy as   
    measured by the GDP. This percentage is known as the debt load.   
      
    The deficit has become pretty much the only real focus of one   
    political party, and much of America. The Blade published a   
    cartoon portraying the debt as a house of cards. Debt and   
    deficit are a continuing point of dispute in the media. Yet   
    should the debt and deficit be so much the focus? Is it going to   
    burden our children and our grandchildren? Let me lay out a   
    scenario for you.   
      
    It is shortly after the war on two fronts have ended. We have an   
    unemployment rate going up and veterans coming back often to   
    jobs that no longer exist. The national debt has exploded,   
    rising to 110% of our GDP, and we are coming out of one   
    recession and heading into another.   
      
    Consider that, then ask, is this our future?   
      
    I don't know, but I do know, this is our history. This is our   
    past. This is the world I was born into.   
      
    In the year 1947, when I was born, World War Two had recently   
    ended, millions of men were coming home, not the hundreds of   
    thousands of this war. The debt was equal to 110% of our   
    economy, which was down from the 122% of just a year before. It   
    was a world war, though, so we had to face that. We had a   
    recession in 1945, and another in 1948. Sounds pretty bad,   
    doesn't it.   
      
    Though the actual numbers were low compared to today, the   
    percentages were worse. After all, we have a vastly larger   
    economy today to deal with that debt. Which is like being able   
    to afford a larger mortgage because you have a larger income.   
      
    Still, the debt at 110% of GDP was much more of a debt burden   
    than we have today. Yet we did survive, and prosper.   
      
    According to the Federal Budget History files, 2010: At the end   
    of WW2 the debt load was almost 122% of GDP. It went down under   
    every president, war and peace, recession or prosperity, liberal   
    or conservative, republican or democrat, from 1945 until it was   
    down below 33% in 1980.   
      
    What was the key? Many I have talked to about this say we did   
    it because the US was nearly untouched by the war, but Europe   
    and Asia were devastated. From 1945 to 1960 that might be the   
    explanation, but by 1960 Europe and Japan were pretty well   
    rebuilt and coming back. Yet the debt load went down. By 1970   
    Europe was thriving, and Japan was gaining a reputation of an   
    economic champion. Still the debt load went down. When 1980 came   
    around Japan was famed as an economic powerhouse, and Europe was   
    strong and growing. In spite of which the debt load went down,   
    until 1980.   
      
    I believe it went down because Americans were working and   
    producing and creating the wealth that built the economy and   
    brought down the debt load.   
      
    In 1980 the debt burden was 33% of the economy, the GDP. By the   
    time Obama took office it had gone up to pushing 90% of the GDP,   
    and approaching $12 Trillion.   
      
    So, Obama was handed an economy that was in recession and at   
    risk of another depression, fighting two wars, and a debt load   
    that was headed for crushing. If the country went into   
    depression the GDP could drop as much as 50%. The debt would not   
    drop, so the debt load would become horrendous. 90% jumps to   
    180%. Higher than this country has ever seen. If the GDP dropped   
    25% that still pushes up the debt load back to the WWII level of   
    120%.   
      
    This is also history, except that we survived it that time.   
    From 1929 to 1933 the nation's GNP went down 46% Back then they   
    used GNP instead of GDP, but the numbers are close enough for   
    our purposes.   
      
    The GNP went down, but the debt didn't. They don't reduce your   
    debt just because your income goes down. So the debt went from   
    16% of GNP to 30% before one more dollar was borrowed. In fact,   
    more money was borrowed, it was the depression remember, so the   
    total debt went to 40% of GNP. Still low by today's standards,   
    but remember, by 1980 our debt load of 33% was near the 1929   
    level.   
      
    All of the increase in the debt load from World War II untill   
    Obama took office was accumulated under three anti-tax   
    presidents. That's 100%. Every other president brought it down.   
      
    In looking at the growth of the national debt I found the fact   
    that it doubled in some president's terms interesting, so I   
    looked into the factor of debt multiplication. In looking at   
    this I was focusing on short term multiplication, first in 10   
    year increments, then in presidential terms. What I found was,   
    there are long stretches where the debt doubles slowly, and   
    short periods where it multiplies. From 1929 on though, slow or   
    fast, it's up almost continuously.   
      
    Looking back to the middle of the 1800s till today I find   
    periods of multiplication, over short periods, with similar   
    characteristics. I have concluded there are only two causes   
    associated with debt multiplication, war and recession. We have   
    both.   
      
    So, how do we cut the deficit, and the growth of the debt? And   
    how fast do we have to do it? In 1936 recovery from the Great   
    Depression was well along. At that point FDR was persuaded to   
    try to reduce the debt, by cutting back on his "stimulus"   
    programs. In 1938 economists were writing up articles on why the   
    nation went back into recession in 1937. The nation didn't   
    recover to it's 1929 level until 1941, just before WWII began.   
    So when to cut back is a crucial matter of timing.   
      
    From 1960 until 2001 federal spending ranged from 17% to nearly   
    23% of GDP. It was running in the 18% range in the late '90s.   
    After 2001 it went up hitting near 25% by the time Obama took   
    office.   
      
    These are important numbers. Remember, the common standard for   
    a recession is two quarters of declining GDP. Not quite   
    accurate, but we can work with it. With federal spending at 25%   
    of GDP, any reduction comes right out of GDP. Normal GDP growth   
    is targeted at the 3% range. Much more than that and the Federal   
    Reserve starts haveing fits. A 10% cut would mean 2.5% off the   
    GDP. Cut 20% and you cut 5% off the GDP, which is instant   
    recession. Do we want to go that way?   
      
    Any reduction of federal spending means shifting the economy to   
    the private sector. Moving back to the pre-2001 levels requires   
    a balanced shift to avoid bringing the recession back. And that   
    means economic recovery. With unemployment as high as it is, the   
    only way we will manage that sort of shift is with job growth.   
    Not just jobs, but well paid jobs.   
      
    There is no way we are going to achieve that in a reasonable   
    length of time through the new economic thinking. The   
    information based or green based economy will not develop enough   
    good jobs fast enough to do the job. We need to bring back   
    industry to this country. We need to manufacture what we   
    consume. That does not require a revolution in our educational   
    system or our regulator system, it requires a revolution in our   
    thinking.   
      
    Back in 1967 the Wall Street Journal reported a poll of   
    Republicans showed 60% thought free trade was bad for America.   
    Many of us have held to the call for Fair Trade, not Free Trade.   
    That is the solution.   
      
    Until we can do that, the only agency that can keep this   
    country afloat is the federal government. The federal   
    government can borrow money to keep the system from collapsing,   
    the states cannot. If the states start going under, if layoffs   
    are resurgent, we may yet see a depression. Whether we can   
    recover from that is uncertain, this time.   
      
    Are our children and grand children going to have to pay for   
    this? Yes, just like we did. The question is how will they do   
    it.   
      
    The only fix for our problem is jobs, well paid jobs. Any   
    tinkering with the federal budget to try to solve the debt   
    problem with cuts will probably just agravate the problem.   
      
    Jobs are the problem. Jobs are the solution.   
      
   BOB KLAHN bob.klahn@sev.org   http://home.toltbbs.com/bobklahn   
      
   ... "the Bush administration saw the largest fiscal erosion in American history   
   --- Via Silver Xpress V4.5/P [Reg]   
    * Origin: Since 1991 And Were Still Here! DOCSPLACE.TZO.COM (1:123/140)