While looking at a website written up in the saturday newspaper   
    computer section I found a link to The Economist. I like to read   
    the economist, so I clicked on the link.On the first page I   
    found stories opening on the current economic crises.   
      
    Conservatives like to say, "The economy is not a zero sum game"   
    when you raise the issue of wealth disparity. Well, the first   
    article that I saw was how it is a zero sum game. At least, it   
    is under the current economic crises, and that crises is not   
    likely to go away for a long time.   
      
    Next comes articles on just why do corporations exist in the   
    first place. Seems corporations are anti-market. Think that one   
    through. Centrally planned economies are generally recognized as   
    inefficient and cumbersome, but corporations are centrally   
    planned mini-economies.   
      
    Rather prominent is the interactive chart allowing you to   
    predict when China will top the US as the world's largest   
    economy. The consensus analysis seems to be 2019. With a   
    significant reduction in China's growth it goes to 2022. The   
    range seems 2017 to 2025.   
      
    There are a number of other articles, some a couple months old,   
    on things like the health care bill, Iran, Christmas in Vietnam,   
    Wikileaks etc.   
      
    On the health care bill, their biggest complaint is that it   
    doesn't do near enough to restrain costs. They analysize   
    America's health care system as the world's most expensive,   
    obviously true, and wasteful all the while leaving out a lot of   
    people. All the national health care bill does is bring more   
    people into a wasteful and expensive system.   
      
    Ok, it also actually provides health care for millions. And it   
    does counter balance a lot of the cost by shifting from more   
    expensive care to less expensive care. However, the lack of the   
    public option drastically increases the cost.   
      
    The also pointed out that the health care bill, as written,   
    could have been a republican bill. Other sources have pointed   
    out it practically is, it's very close to what Nixon came up   
    with back in the '70s.   
      
    On Iran, it seems the sanctions are actually likely to start   
    hurting the economy.   
      
    Back in 2004 many right wingers, including in Fidonet, made a   
    big deal out of Kerry's writing up his journey up a river   
    listening to the Vietnamese in a nearby village firing off guns   
    in celebration of Christmas. They smeard that over Vietnam being   
    a Buddhist country so they would not celebrate Christmas. I   
    pointed out then that Vietnam not only had a lot of Christians,   
    but the government was dominated by Christians.   
      
    The economist reports on current celebration of Christmas in   
    Vietnam, where even non-Christians show up to enjoy the   
    celebrations. At over 6 million Catholics, Vietnam has the   
    second largest Catholic population in Asia, after the   
    Phillipines.   
      
    Oh, and the BBC recently reported on Algiers, a 99% Muslim   
    country, where Muslims go to the Catholic Cathedral to pray. The   
    Cathedral of Our Lady of Africa is a major point of pride in   
    Algiers. Just a digression from the political.   
      
    The Wikileaks article is more about how the US document dump is   
    perceived. No specific conclusion reached. I suspect it will   
    prove to be a great favor to the US in the long run.   
      
    Then we go onto the really good one, how poverty is the future   
    for America's long term unemployed. This one is more than   
    speculation, it's analysis. And it does make sense. Long term   
    unemployment today is setting post WWII records. I went to the   
    BLS website, and ran up the statistics. It is easier to see on   
    the charts, how 15 to 26 week unemployment, and over 26 week   
    unemployment, went up and down over the last 60some years, but   
    in the last couple shot off the charts.   
      
    They give the stats on the counted and uncounted unemployed and   
    the part time should be full time unemployed. I went to the BLS   
    stats, and looked again at the unemployed but out of the labor   
    force therefore not counted numbers. Those numbers are only   
    recorded from 1994 on.   
      
    What surprised me is, the numbers are not up noticably, but the   
    number of unemployed is way out of the ball park. IOW, the   
    unemployed are not pushed out of the labor force yet, they are   
    very much the recently unemployed, or those who left the labor   
    force and went on social security and retired so are not counted   
    at all.   
      
    What did not surprise me was how high unemployment was in Bush's   
    first few years. In fact, it peaked in his third year, then went   
    down some, then went out of sight in 2008.   
      
    IOW, poverty could very well be the future of today's   
    unemployed.   
      
    Added note:   
      
    Normally I do not have skype running on my computer all the   
    time. Due to the holidays and maybe wanting to reach people I   
    have had it up and running. In the middle of composing this msg   
    I got beeped by one of my Skype contacts.   
      
    In the past I have mentioned my "friendly neighborhood   
    economist". He is now in Europe, where he is an engineering   
    manager for an auto supplier. We chatted in general, then on the   
    Economist article on China surpassing the US as world's biggest   
    economy.   
      
    His response was, the US has 40 years still to come at the top.   
    Ok, he's very pro-American, and 40 years is a bit long to   
    predict, but he is a bit of a realist also. On the current   
    situation, he predicts companies will start hiring in 5 or 6   
    months. I pointed out how the republicans have publically stated   
    their sole intention is to beat Obama, and stand against   
    whatever he favors, regardless of the intent.   
      
    Remember, Obama's tax bill included stimulous to small business,   
    America's job force. The republicans were ready to block that   
    forever only to get tax cuts for the rich extended. So I pointed   
    out the republicans will have great opportunities to screw   
    things up.   
      
    He sticks to his hiring improvement prediction.   
      
      
      
   BOB KLAHN bob.klahn@sev.org   http://home.toltbbs.com/bobklahn   
      
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