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   >  AT> Ok, correction: he assaulted a woman in midtown Manhattan in July of   
   >  AT> 2022, posted bail, assaulted the female police officer on August 9 of   
   >  AT> 2024, was granted bail on October 17 of 2024, then on February 15 of   
   >  AT> this year he assaulted another woman in Times Square.   
      
   > Thank you for citing this one isolated incident that supports your claim.   
      
   Here is a better one.  If you google "usa likelihood violent offenders   
   repeat," the first non-AI response you will get is from the United States   
   Sentencing Commission.   
      
   They say that "63.8% of violent offenders recidivated by being rearrested   
   for a new crime or for a violation of supervision conditions."  They also   
   note that this is a higher rate than for non-violent offenders.   
      
   I am sure that a few of them are committing new acts of violence while in   
   custody, but it sounds like a high percentage of them (nearly 2/3rds) are   
   in trouble again within ~8 years and I am guessing most of that nearly   
   2/3rds are ones who were released.   
      
   Note that this percentage is only for *federal* violent offenders.   
      
   Another link that shows up is from the NIH and was published in 2013.  It   
   claims that 1% of the population accounts for 63.2% of all convictions.  It   
   potes that "the majority of violent crimes are perpetrated by a small number   
   of *persistent* violent offenders."  Persistent being a key word.   
      
   The NIH goes on to say that this group of persistent offender is typically   
   male and usually have a pattern of early-onset violent offenses, substance   
   abuse, personality disorders, and also a history of non-violent offenses.   
      
   I mention the year in this last one as proof that it didn't come out in the   
   last 6 weeks.  Another important note is that, for whatever reason, the US   
   NIH was studying *Swedish* violent criminals and not US criminals. (???)   
      
   Back to the good ole USA and CNN has an article whose headline seems to   
   contradict the US Sentencing Commission data.  They claim that violent   
   criminals are rarely rearrested "for the same offense."   
   That last bit may be key.   
      
      
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