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   Sam Altman says AI is progressing faster than Moores law as he predicts AGI    
   is coming into view, and it's leaving me worried about the future   
      
   Date:   
   Mon, 10 Feb 2025 15:43:57 +0000   
      
   Description:   
   Sam Altman's latest blog post has a few concerning predictions.   
      
   FULL STORY   
   ======================================================================   
      
   Moores law, named after Gordon E. Moore, the co-founder of Intel, states that   
   the number of components on a single chip doubles every two years at minimal   
   cost. Its not exactly hard science, but his simple observation of how rapidly   
   chip technology was progressing back in 1965, has proved to be pretty useful   
   for predicting where technology will be in the years to come.    
      
   In his latest blog post , Sam Altman, CEO of OpenAI, makers of ChatGPT , just   
   stated that  Moores law changed the world at 2x every 18 months; this is   
   unbelievably stronger.  Altman was referring to the massive price drop we've   
   seen for AI usage.  For developers, this is measured in token cost, and the   
   token cost to use AI has been falling about 10x every 12 months. Between    
   early 2023 to mid-2024, the price per token for using ChatGPT has dropped   
   about 150x.   
      
   AGI is coming    
      
   Technically, Altman got it wrong by writing 18 months instead of about two   
   years. The 18 months figure is a common misquote since there was a separate   
   prediction by Moores colleague, Intel Executive David House that Moores Law   
   would mean that chip performance would double every 18 months, with no   
   increase in power consumption. So, a forgivable slip.    
      
   However, Altmans point is that the falling cost of using AI is another   
   indicator that artificial general intelligence (AGI) is coming into view. AGI   
   is an artificial intelligence that is on a par with, or smarter than, human   
   intelligence, and developing it is the whole reason that companies like    
   OpenAI exist because the benefits of AGI could be truly world-changing,   
   despite the dangers that we keep getting warned about .    
      
   Its worth reading the whole of Sam Altman's blog post because it very much   
   reads like a warning that the future is coming sooner than we think and that   
   we really start to need to prepare for how the world is going to change.   
   Altmans predictions are certainly mind-blowing. His three key predictions for   
   the immediate future are:   
      
    - Scientific progress will likely be much faster than it is today   
    - The price of many goods will eventually fall dramatically   
    - The price of luxury goods and a few inherently limited resources like land   
   may rise even more dramatically   
      
   Altman doesnt predict these changes happening in 2025, but since hes already   
   gone on record saying that humanity will achieve AGI this year , the changes   
   would appear to be right around the corner.    
      
   His message is also that we have some tough choices coming up regarding AGI   
   and how freely it should be used, because one possible future, we can see is   
   AI being used by authoritarian governments to control their population    
   through mass surveillance and loss of autonomy.    
      
   In Altmans vision, ensuring that the benefits of AGI are broadly distributed   
   is critical to prevent this from happening.    
      
   He ends with a quite astonishing prediction: Anyone in 2035 should be able to   
   marshall the intellectual capacity equivalent to everyone in 2025; everyone   
   should have access to unlimited genius to direct however they can imagine.    
      
   Its hard to know how to process the breadth of Altmans vision right now.   
   Companies like OpenAI are committed to developing AGI, but the dangers   
   inherent in who controls this technology are something that Altman is urging   
   us to start considering and talking about right now.   
      
   ======================================================================   
   Link to news story:   
   https://www.techradar.com/computing/artificial-intelligence/sam-altman-says-ai   
   -is-progressing-faster-than-moores-law-as-he-predicts-agi-is-coming-into-view-   
   and-its-leaving-me-worried-about-the-future   
      
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