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|    Message 2,346 of 2,445    |
|    Mike Powell to All    |
|    Kurzweil's AI predictions feel strikingl    |
|    06 Feb 26 08:11:47    |
      TZUTC: -0500       MSGID: 2104.consprcy@1:2320/105 2deb26cb       PID: Synchronet 3.21a-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0       TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0       BBSID: CAPCITY2       CHRS: ASCII 1       FORMAT: flowed       'What will people do in the year 2050, given the enormous intellectual power       computers are likely to have?': The man Google calls the spiritual father of       AI asked big questions in 1991 - 35 years later, we're still wrestling with       the answers              By Wayne Williams              Ray Kurzweil's AI predictions feel strikingly familiar today              Back when artificial intelligence was still poorly understood outside research       labs, Ray Kurzweil was already frustrated with how narrowly it was being       discussed. In a 1991 interview with Computerworld, he pushed back forcefully       against claims that AI had failed to live up to its promise.              "That's unfair, because every time we master a particular area of AI, it       ceases to be considered AI. It's just like a magic trick - when you know       how it's done, it's no longer magic," he said, adding, "Take machine       vision, for example, which today [in 1991] is a $300 million business. People       don't consider that AI, but it is part of AI."              Kurzweil argued that public expectations were skewed not by failure, but by       familiarity.              "People usually just mean expert systems when they refer to AI, but that's       just one small part of it. By the end of this decade, most software will be       intelligent, but it won't necessarily be called AI."              AI then and now              More than three decades later, image recognition, speech-to-text,       recommendation systems, and automated decision-making are everywhere, and       rarely even thought of as AI anymore. The label has simply moved on to the       likes of ChatGPT and Google Gemini.              At the time of the Computerworld interview, Kurzweil was already deeply       embedded in the commercial side of artificial intelligence, having founded       multiple companies focused on pattern recognition, music synthesis, and speech       recognition. When asked whether he was surprised by how computing had evolved       since his teenage years, he dismissed the suggestion.              "I'm not really surprised. I've always felt that digital information       could encompass many types of phenomena - from sound, speech and music to       pictures and three-dimensional objects. Almost everything can be digitized.       Even our genetic code can be digitized."              For Kurzweil, the question was never if machines could do these things, but       when they would become cheap and fast enough to matter. "It was also clear       to me that a gradual price/performance revolution of digital electronics would       ultimately allow all of these types of information to become practical and       cost-effective."              That framing - economics over breakthroughs - underpins much of today's       AI boom. The models themselves are impressive, but their sudden usefulness is       largely the result of scale, compute, and cost curves finally aligning.              When asked directly how he defined artificial intelligence, Kurzweil avoided       the sci-fi tropes of the time, explaining: "AI is the art of creating       machines that perform functions we associate with human intelligence.       Intelligence is the ability to use limited resources in an effective way using       abstract reasoning, the ability to recognize patterns and the ability to solve       problems in a limited time period."              Kurzweil then added a detail that feels even more relevant today than it did       back then. "But probably 80% to 90% of our brains are devoted to pattern       recognition and skill acquisition."              Modern machine learning systems are built almost entirely on that assumption.       They do not reason in the way humans like to imagine, but they excel at       recognizing patterns across vast amounts of data - exactly the cognitive       function Kurzweil identified as dominant.              AI and consciousness              Later in the interview, he was asked where AI stood in its evolution. His       answer was cautious, and revealing.              "We are creating systems that can emulate human intelligence within a narrow       domain. They diagnose a limited domain of illnesses, play a game like chess,       make a type of financial decision, guide a missile toward a building."              The limitation, he explained, was context. "These systems become idiots       again when they go outside their area of expertise. As AI matures, we're       trying to broaden the machine's areas of expertise by combining different AI       systems such as speech recognition, natural language understanding and the       ability to make decisions within a certain expert domain."              Kurzweil was asked by Computerworld what he envisioned when looking into the       future, and replied: "The question is: What is really going to happen when       computers can compete with human intelligence or exceed it? Once a computer can       emulate essential human functionality, it can then combine that with the       enormous superiority it already displays in its ability to remember billions or       trillions of facts with extreme precision, to access that information at       extremely high speed and to perform functions over and over again very       quickly."              He then pointed out, "If it can read a book, there's nothing to stop it       from reading every book that's ever been published and all magazines and       technical journals and from mastering all human knowledge. Once it reaches       equality with human intelligence in some areas, it is necessarily going to be       greatly superior to human intelligence in other areas."              Kurzweil concluded that thought with a comment which is especially pertinent       today: "The ramifications of that are difficult to understand. Much of our       pride is associated with our confidence in being superior in the intellectual       realm."              One of the most philosophically loaded questions in the interview came when       Kurzweil was asked whether a machine could ever be conscious. His response       sidestepped easy answers.              "The key is the issue of consciousness and what it means to be a living,       conscious entity and whether a machine that appears to emulate human-like       functionality is conscious," he said.              "Perhaps the best way to understand the paradoxes this issue confronts us       with is to examine the following scenario: Eventually, we'll be able to scan       a human being, and a computer will take note of the exact structure of all of       our neurons and other cells. You could then imagine creating a new computer       that would be wired up in exactly the same way that the person just scanned."              Kurzweil was not trying to solve consciousness as an engineering problem. He       was reframing it as a question of identity. If a system looks, speaks, and       remembers exactly like a person, then the question of consciousness stops being       technical and becomes philosophical.              "If you ran into this computer, it would seem very much like the original       person to you. The question then is, is it the same person? Does this computer       have consciousness? One might say yes, because you'd get all the sense of       consciousness if you interviewed it. The bottom line is: There is no scientific       experiment you can conduct to determine whether any other entity - an animal,       machine or person - is conscious."              Today, as AI systems produce language about emotions, identity, and       self-awareness, Kurzweil's framing feels less hypothetical and more       uncomfortable. He was not claiming machines would be conscious, of course, only       that humans lack a reliable way to deny it once that behavior becomes       convincing.              That uncertainty surfaced in real life in 2022, when Google engineer Blake       Lemoine became convinced that the company's LaMDA system was sentient, shared       his claims with The Washington Post, and was promptly suspended.              The 1991 interview also tackled public anxiety about automation and work, which       is a major topic today.              Kurzweil said: "It will have a very profound impact on society and the role       that human beings play. Despite the fact that computers, automation and       machines have increasingly been able to perform functions that human beings       can, human employment has increased quite dramatically. We went from 12 million       jobs employing 30% of the population 100 years ago to over 120 million jobs       employing 50% of the population. Not only that, the sophistication of the jobs       has increased, and they pay six times as much in constant dollars. However, the       question remains: What will people do in the year 2050, given the enormous       intellectual power computers are likely to have?"              Kurzweil didn't attempt to answer his own question, but instead left it       deliberately open.              Today, in his late seventies, Kurzweil works at Google and is often described       as the "spiritual father of AI." Many of the ideas shaping modern machine       learning echo arguments he was already making back in 1991.              Thirty-five years later, we are much closer to the future he described - but       no closer to answering the question he left hanging.                     https://www.techradar.com/pro/what-will-people-do-in-the-year-2050-given-the-en       ormous-intellectual-power-computers-are-likely-to-have-the-man-google-calls-the       -spiritual-father-of-ai-asked-big-questions-in-1991-35-years-later-were-still-w       restling-with-the-answers              $$       --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux        * Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)       SEEN-BY: 105/81 106/201 128/187 129/14 305 153/7715 154/110 218/700       SEEN-BY: 226/30 227/114 229/110 134 206 300 307 317 400 426 428 470       SEEN-BY: 229/664 700 705 266/512 291/111 320/219 322/757 342/200 396/45       SEEN-BY: 460/58 633/280 712/848 902/26 2320/0 105 304 3634/12 5075/35       PATH: 2320/105 229/426           |
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