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   How UK businesses can prepare for tariff whiplash   
      
   Date:   
   Mon, 31 Mar 2025 07:29:04 +0000   
      
   Description:   
   Technology solutions to overcome tariff turmoil.   
      
   FULL STORY   
   ======================================================================   
      
   Its hard to believe Donald Trump has only been back in office since midway   
   through January. Whether its additional tariffs on the import of materials   
   like steel and aluminium or plans to target countries with reciprocal    
   tariffs, the rate of change and potential impact on supply chains is almost   
   too fast and far-reaching for any one person to keep pace with.    
      
   With fresh tariffs emerging from the US on an almost daily basis, its not   
   possible for any business  especially those reliant on global trade  to   
   predict every new announcement, or have a bespoke response plan ready for    
   each possible scenario.    
      
   Instead, businesses with the potential to be hit by tariff whiplash must be   
   able to respond swiftly to developments as they happen, or better still   
   rehearse for potential changes ahead of time, many of which may be entirely   
   unprecedented.    
      
   To do this, they need to have the technological tools that enable them to see   
   beyond the horizon to identify plausible scenarios and their potential    
   impacts at all levels of the supply chain, from the network to the individual   
   warehouse shop floor before their rivals - thus turning seismic change into   
   competitive advantage.    
      
   Ultimately, when a storm of unexpected tariffs or unprecedented disruption   
   strikes, the businesses that can adapt flexibly and with speed will be best   
   placed to ride it out.   
      
   Which industries are particularly vulnerable?    
      
   In the UK, many businesses are already feeling whiplash from a month of    
   tariff changes under the new US administration. The US is Britains largest   
   single export market, with more than 60bn worth of goods exported there in   
   2023  15.3% of the UKs global total.    
      
   Industries heavily reliant on exports  most notably, machinery and transport   
   are those facing the most risk.    
      
   Take the machinery and transport sector, which is worth more than 200bn    
   across the UK and the EU. Car manufacturers  particularly in Germany, Europes   
   dominant manufacturing force and leading exporter to the US and Mexico  are   
   already facing a substantial hit.    
      
   And if the reciprocal tariffs mooted last week by the US President take   
   effect, which would impose minimum tariffs across the board added to each   
   nations VAT rate, the UK would be the fourth most impacted country.    
      
   Simply put, many businesses in the UK remain underprepared to deal with the   
   impact of such a scenario. Too many still rely on outdated methods to assess   
   the impact that limit agility, in a trading environment which only seems to    
   be growing more volatile.   
      
   Barriers to supply chain agility    
      
   The reason that many supply chains remain vulnerable to sudden tariff changes   
   or trade policies is because their approaches to operations tend to be   
   reactive rather than proactive.    
      
   In recent times, Artificial Intelligence (AI) has significantly improved   
   forecasting capabilities. But when used alone, it is not enough; AI   
   fundamentally learns from past events, meaning it can overlook entirely   
   plausible but unprecedented scenarios.    
      
   Indeed, one of the key barriers to true agility is an over-reliance on   
   historical data to drive decision-making. For example, it is certainly useful   
   context that in trade battles in Trumps last term in office, the US targeted   
   famous consumer goods including French wines and cheeses, Italian luxury    
   goods and Scottish and Irish whiskies.    
      
   But reliance on this historical context alone fails to account for the new,   
   more aggressive trade policy of a second Trump presidency, and the    
   possibility of an economic policy with tariffs as its cornerstone targeting   
   new industries. To achieve truly agile, flexible response capabilities,   
   businesses must have access to insights which go beyond simple derivations of   
   past events.    
      
   Another major challenge is the speed of response, especially with so much   
   uncertainty around the future about when tariff changes will hit, or who will   
   be impacted. On average, it takes two weeks for a business to react to supply   
   chain disruption  delays that, over a decade, can erode nearly six months   
   worth of profits. Without scenario modelling and strategic foresight,   
   companies will remain on the back foot, forced into crisis-mode   
   decision-making rather than pre-emptive adaptation.   
      
   A tariff-proof supply chain combines AI with simulation technology   
      
   To effectively anticipate and plan for tariff change in todays volatile   
   geopolitical context, businesses need to be capable of using AI tools in   
   combination with simulation technology - intelligent simulation.    
      
   Doing so gets the best out of both technologies. With intelligent simulation,   
   AI can model and prioritize countless what if scenarios, providing supply   
   chain and logistics teams with actionable insights before disruptions occur.    
      
   Whether it's understanding the impact of potential tariff changes,    
   identifying alternative suppliers, or assessing new market opportunities, AI   
   in combination with simulation allows businesses to remain agile and act   
   quickly before the unprecedented strikes.    
      
   Businesses that integrate AI in combination with simulation technology into   
   their supply chain strategies will not only navigate tariff whiplash with   
   greater ease but will also establish a competitive edge in global trade.    
      
   This is because combining simulations with AI allow companies to explore both   
   the network and the individual warehouse or distribution center-level impact   
   of complex, tailored counterfactuals about the future with which they can    
   plan better than ever.    
      
   Ultimately, operations leaders need to understand the impact of a tariff   
   change on a granular level as well as the network level. With this approach,   
   they can overcome the limitations of sparse real-world information and   
   generate new training data for AI technology so that it can deliver   
   comprehensive, reliable forward-looking insights during periods of trade   
   unpredictability.    
      
   With this level of insight, different tariff scenarios can be focused on and   
   planned for and responses rehearsed accordingly - so that when the time comes   
   in real life, they can respond with flexibility and agility.    
      
   The reality is that economic unpredictability is here to stay. The only   
   question that remains is whether businesses will continue with a reactive   
   approach  or choose a prepared, pre-emptive approach instead.    
      
   if operators are to take action, they need to understand the impact of a   
   tariff change not just at the network level but down to the more granular   
   level for individual warehouse for example    
      
    This article was produced as part of TechRadarPro's Expert Insights channel   
   where we feature the best and brightest minds in the technology industry   
   today. The views expressed here are those of the author and are not   
   necessarily those of TechRadarPro or Future plc. If you are interested in   
   contributing find out more here:   
   https://www.techradar.com/news/submit-your-story-to-techradar-pro   
      
   ======================================================================   
   Link to news story:   
   https://www.techradar.com/pro/how-uk-businesses-can-prepare-for-tariff-whiplas   
   h   
      
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