Solar Mini-Max   
       
   June 10, 2014:  Years ago, in 2008 and 2009 an eerie quiet descended on the   
   sun.  Sunspot counts dropped to historically-low levels and solar flares   
   ceased altogether.  As the longest and deepest solar minimum in a century   
   unfolded, bored solar physicists wondered when "Solar Max" would ever return.   
       
   They can stop wondering. "It's back," says Dean Pesnell of the Goddard Space   
   Flight Center.  "Solar Max has arrived."   
       
   http://youtu.be/8Ha7X6dWVQE   
       
   A new ScienceCast video examines the curious Solar Max of 2014.  Play it   
       
   Pesnell is a leading member of the NOAA/NASA Solar Cycle Prediction Panel, a   
   blue-ribbon group of solar physicists who meet from time to time to forecast   
   future solar cycles.  It's not as easy as it sounds. Although textbooks call   
   it the "11-year solar cycle," the actual cycle can take anywhere from 9 to 14   
   years to complete.  Some Solar Maxes are strong, others weak, and, sometimes,   
   as happened for nearly 70 years in the 17th century, the solar cycle can   
   vanish altogether.   
       
   Pesnell points to a number of factors that signal Solar Max conditions in   
   2014: "The sun's magnetic field has flipped; we are starting to see the   
   development of long coronal holes; and, oh yes, sunspot counts are cresting."   
       
   Another panelist, Doug Bieseker of the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center,   
   agrees with Pesnell: "Solar Maximum is here .. Finally." According to an   
   analysis Bieseker presented at NOAA's Space Weather Workshop in April, the   
   sunspot number for Solar Cycle 24 is near its peak right now.   
       
   They agree on another point, too:  It is not very impressive.   
       
   "This solar cycle continues to rank among the weakest on record," comments Ron   
   Turner of Analytic Services, Inc. who serves as a Senior Science Advisor to   
   NASA's Innovative Advanced Concepts program.  To illustrate the point, he   
   plotted the smoothed sunspot number of Cycle 24 vs. the previous 23 cycles   
   since 1755. "In the historical record, there are only a few Solar Maxima   
   weaker than this one."   
       
   As a result, many researchers have started calling the ongoing peak a   
   "Mini-Max."   
       
   http://science.nasa.gov/media/medialibrary/2014/06/10/plot.jpg   
       
   This plot prepared by Ron Turner of Analytic Services, Inc., shows the   
   smoothed sunspot number of Cycle 24 (red) vs. the previous 23 cycles since   
   1755.   
       
   Pesnell believes that "Solar Cycle 24, such as it is, will probably start   
   fading by 2015." Ironically, that is when some of the bigger flares and   
   magnetic storms could occur.  Biesecker has analyzed historical records of   
   solar activity and he finds that most large events such as strong flares and   
   significant geomagnetic storms typically occur in the declining phase of solar   
   cycles-even weak ones.   
       
   Indeed, this "Mini-Max" has already unleashed one of the strongest storms in   
   recorded history.  On July 23, 2012, a plasma cloud or "CME" rocketed away   
   from the sun as fast as 3000 km/s, more than four times faster than a typical   
   eruption. The storm tore through Earth orbit, but fortunately Earth wasn't   
   there. Instead it hit NASA's STEREO-A spacecraft, which recorded the event for   
   analysis.  Researchers now believe the eruption was as significant as the   
   iconic Carrington Event of 1859-a solar storm that set telegraph offices on   
   fire and sparked Northern Lights as far south as Hawaii. If the 2012   
   "superstorm" had hit Earth, the damage to power grids and satellites would   
   have been significant.   
       
   It all adds up to one thing: "We're not out of the woods yet," says Pesnell.    
   Even a "Mini-Max" can stir up major space weather-and there's more to come as   
   the cycle declines.   
       
   Credits:   
   Author: Dr. Tony Phillips | Production editor: Dr. Tony Phillips | Credit:   
   Science@NASA   
       
   Web Links:  Solar Cycle Progression -- NOAA Space Weather Workshop   
       
       
   Regards,   
       
   Roger   
      
   --- D'Bridge 3.99   
    * Origin: NCS BBS - Houma, LoUiSiAna (1:3828/7)