Hello All!   
      
   Something Flare-y This Way Comes: The mini-Halloween Storms of 2013    
      
   Oct. 31, 2013:  Some Halloweens are scarier than others.   
      
   Ten years ago, in late October 2003, space weather forecasters experienced a   
   frission of dread when two gigantic sunspots appeared. Both had complex   
   magnetic fields that harbored energy for strong explosions.  If the spots   
   turned toward Earth and erupted....    
      
   http://www.nasa.gov/images/content/533440main_halloweenstorm2003-aurora.jpg   
   AND   
   http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UHYbnv6O1Go   
      
   Blood-red auroras over Maryland on Halloween 2003. Credit: George Varros   
   MoreThat's exactly what happened.  From Oct. 19th through Nov. 7th 2003, there   
   were 17 major eruptions on the sun, including a record-setting X28 flare.  One   
   after another, CMEs (coronal mass ejections) slammed into Earth's   
   magnetosphere, causing geomagnetic storms and Northern lights seen as far   
   south as Florida and Texas.  On Halloween itself, many trick or treaters   
   witnessed blood-red auroras--very spooky indeed.   
      
   At the peak of these "Halloween Storms," as solar physicists began to call   
   them, airlines had to re-route polar flights to lower latitudes, the power   
   went out in parts of Sweden, and more than half of NASA's satellite fleet   
   experienced problems ranging from temporary shut-downs to permanent damage.   
   The FAA's Wide Area Augmentation System (a network of radio transmitters that   
   improves GPS navigation for aircraft) was offline for approximately 30 hours   
   due to the storm, and the Japanese ADEOS-2 satellite was severely damaged.   
      
   Fast forward 10 years to October 2013, and the sun is storming again.   
      
   A week before Halloween 2013, a new coven of big sunspots appeared. To date   
   (Oct. 31st), they have unleashed more than half a dozen major flares including   
   four X-class events.  Earth is not experiencing the same kind of effects as   
   ten years ago, however, because the eruptions have not been as energetic and,   
   moreover, most of them have missed our planet. This makes the Halloween Storms   
   of 2013 less scary than their 2003 predecessors.    
      
   http://www.spaceweather.com/images2013/29oct13/x2.jpg   
      
   An X2-class solar flare recorded by NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory on Sept.   
   29, 2013.    
      
   "This spate of activity is inconsequential when compared to the 2003 events,"   
   recalls Joe Kunches, a longtime forecaster working at NOAA's Space Weather   
   Prediction Center in Boulder CO. He points out that geomagnetic storm indices   
   now are an order of magnitude smaller than they were ten years ago.    
      
   Nevertheless, the current storms are remarkable because they are the   
   "flariest" thing to come along in a while.  Solar activity waxes and wanes in   
   11-year cycles.  In 2003, the sun was ramping down from a strong Solar Max.   
   The potent Halloween storms of that year were, if not actually predicted, at   
   least not surprising. 2013 is different. The current solar cycle is one of the   
   weakest in a century. This makes the mini-Halloween Storms of 2013 a bigger   
   surprise even as they do less damage.    
      
   Also mitigating the damage in 2013 is a decade of improvements in space   
   weather forecasting.  Using data from NASA science spacecraft such as the twin   
   STEREO probes and the Solar Dynamics Observatory, NOAA analysts are able to   
   predict the arrival of solar storms with better accuracy than ever.  This   
   gives satellite operators, NASA mission controllers, and airline flight   
   planners extra time to safeguard life and property.   
      
   Ultimately, the ending of this spooky tale may require a re-write.  Why?    
   Because it's not over yet.  As Halloween 2013 comes and goes the sun is still   
   peppered with large and active sunspots.  One of them may yet send a powerful   
   flare and CME directly toward us, sparking storms akin to the ones from a   
   decade ago.    
      
   When you knock on the door and shout "trick or treat", you never know what you   
   might get when the door opens.  The sun is much the same way.    
      
   Credits:   
      
   Author: Dr. Tony Phillips | Production editor: Dr. Tony Phillips | Credit:   
   Science@NASA   
      
   More information:   
      
    What is an X-flare?  from nasa.gov   
      
   The Effects of Space Weather on Aviation -- ScienceCast   
      
      
   Regards,   
      
   Roger    
   --- timEd/386 1.10.y2k+   
    * Origin: NCS BBS - Houma, LoUiSiAna - (1:3828/7)