Draconid Meteor Outburst Oct. 4, 2011: On October 8th Earth is going to plow   
   through a stream of dust from Comet 21P/Giacobini-Zinner, and the result could   
   be an outburst of Draconid meteors.   
       
   "We're predicting as many as 750 meteors per hour," says Bill Cooke of NASA's   
   Meteoroid Environment Office. "The timing of the shower favors observers in   
   the Middle East, north Africa and parts of Europe."   
       
   http://www.noao.edu/image_gallery/html/im0408.html   
       
   Comet 21P/Giacobini-Zinner in Nov. 1998 photographed by astronomers at Kitt   
   Peak. [more] Every 6.6 years Comet Giacobini-Zinner swings through the inner   
   solar system. With each visit, it lays down a narrow filament of dust, over   
   time forming a network of filaments that Earth encounters every year in early   
   October.   
       
   "Most years, we pass through gaps between filaments, maybe just grazing one or   
   two as we go by," says Cooke. "Occasionally, though, we hit one nearly head   
   on--and the fireworks begin."   
       
   2011 could be such a year. Forecasters at NASA and elsewhere agree that Earth   
   is heading for three or more filaments on October 8th. Multiple encounters   
   should produce a series of variable outbursts beginning around 1600 Universal   
   Time (noon EDT) with the strongest activity between 1900 and 2100 UT (3:00 pm   
   - 5:00 pm EDT).   
       
   Forecasters aren't sure how strong the display will be, mainly because the   
   comet had a close encounter with Jupiter in the late 1880s. At that time, the   
   giant planet's gravitational pull altered the comet's orbit and introduced   
   some uncertainty into the location of filaments it has shed since then.   
   Competing models place the filaments in slightly different spots; as a result,   
   estimated meteor rates range from dozens to hundreds per hour.   
       
   http://ntrs.nasa.gov/archive/nasa/casi.ntrs.nasa.gov/20100024125_2010023492.p   
   df   
       
   Comet dust stream models suggest a succession of peaks in meteor rate between   
   1600 and 2100 UT on Oct. 9th. Click here for details. Credit: MSFC/Meteoroid   
   Environment Office.   
       
   One respected forecaster, Paul Wiegert of the University of Western Ontario,   
   says the meteor rate could go as high as 1000 per hour -- the definition of a   
   meteor storm. It wouldn't be the first time. Close encounters with dusty   
   filaments produced storms of more than 10,000 Draconids per hour in 1933 and   
   1946 and lesser outbursts in 1985, 1998, and 2005.   
       
   Meteors from Comet Giacobini-Zinner stream out of the northern constellation   
   Draco--hence their name. Draconids are among the slowest of all meteors,   
   hitting the atmosphere at a relatively leisurely 20 km/s. The slow pace of   
   Draconid meteors minimizes their danger to satellites and spacecraft and makes   
   them visually distinctive.   
       
   "A Draconid gliding leisurely across the sky is a beautiful sight," says Cooke.   
       
   Unfortunately, many of this year's Draconids will go unseen. Draconids are   
   faint to begin with, and this year they have to complete with an almost-full   
   Moon. Lunar glare will reduce the number of meteors visible from Europe,   
   Africa and the Middle East by 2- to 10-fold. The situation is even worse in   
   North America where the shower occurs in broad daylight-completely   
   obliterating the display.   
       
   That isn't stopping a group1 of middle school and high school students from   
   Bishop, California, however. They plan to observe the shower from the   
   stratosphere where the sky is dark even at noontime.   
       
   http://science.nasa.gov/media/medialibrary/2011/10/04/whitemountains.jpg   
       
   Black skies at high noon, photographed from a high-altitude helium balloon on   
   Sept. 3, 2011. Credit: Earth to Sky, a student group located in Bishop, CA.   
       
   Led by Science@NASA's Tony Phillips, the 15 students have been launching   
   helium balloons to the edge of space since May of 2011. With more than 95% of   
   Earth's atmosphere below the balloon, the sky above looks almost as black as   
   it would from a spacecraft-perfect for astronomy.   
       
   "The students are going to attempt to fly one of our low-light meteor cameras   
   in the payload of their balloon," says Cooke. "I hope they catch some Draconid   
   fireballs for us to analyze. They could be the only ones we get."   
       
   Stay tuned for results after Oct. 8th.   
       
       
   Author: Dr. Tony Phillips | Credit: Science@NASA   
       
   More Information   
   Draconid Home Page -- sky maps, predictions and discussion from the   
   International Meteor Organization   
       
   Draconid predictions by the NASA Meteoroid Environment Office -- B. Cooke & D.   
   Moser, 2010 (PDF)   
       
   Footnotes: (1) Earth to Sky is a group of middle school and high school   
   students in Bishop, California, who are exploring the edge of space via helium   
   balloons and nanosatellites. Members of Earth to Sky include Sam Johnson,   
   Amelia Koske-Phillips, Michael White, Anna Herbst, Rachel Molina, Melodie   
   Aust, Nick Alexander, Ginger Perez, Olivia Grah, Logan Stephenson, Amelia   
   Yarborough, Jordan Herbst, Bronwyn Stephenson, Caitlyn Vargas and Wyatt Walsh.   
   They attend Home Street Middle School and Bishop Union High School.   
       
       
   Regards,   
       
   Roger   
      
   --- D'Bridge 3.64   
    * Origin: NCS BBS (1:3828/7)