Taking the Surprise out of Hurricane Season   
       
   Prior to the 1960's, the biggest storms on Earth could take people by   
   surprise. Someone standing on a beach in Florida might not know if a distant   
   bank of clouds was a routine squall or . the harbinger of a powerful hurricane.   
       
   The Space Age changed all that. Satellites orbiting the Earth can image,   
   probe, and track hurricanes, alerting forecasters and laypeople alike to   
   storms in the offing. In recent decades, the introduction of supercomputers   
   and physics-based models of storm dynamics, combined with satellite, airborne,   
   and surface data, have pushed the accuracy of forecasts issued by the National   
   Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) to a new level of precision.   
       
   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uEfntUc90dE   
       
   As forecasters have improved storm tracks, however, an area of forecasting has   
   lagged behind: predicting the intensity of storms. In other words, how strong   
   will the winds be blowing when a hurricane makes landfall?   
       
   Scott Braun, hurricane expert at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center in   
   Greenbelt, MD says, "From 1990 to around 2010, there wasn't much improvement   
   in the accuracy of hurricane intensity forecasts. In the last several years,   
   we have started to see drops in intensity forecast errors. This can be   
   credited to a number of factors, including better measurements from satellite   
   and airborne platforms, improvements to the physics in numerical weather   
   prediction models, and improved methods of ingesting NOAA and NASA data into   
   models that describe the state of the atmosphere."   
       
   An important part of predicting intensity is seeing what's going on deep   
   inside a storm. Evaporation of water from the warm ocean surface powers   
   hurricanes and causes them to intensify. Hotter sea surface temperatures at   
   the base of a storm, therefore, can load a hurricane with more energy. On the   
   other hand, wind shear can tear a storm apart, causing it to weaken.   
       
   So, how do you collect data from inside a giant storm?   
       
   First, you can fly right into it. In recent years NASA has sent research   
   aircraft directly into or over storms as part of the Genesis and Rapid   
   Intensification (GRIP) experiment in 2010 and the Hurricane and Severe Storm   
   Sentinel (HS3) mission from 2012-2014. These aircraft were flown to   
   investigate the formation and intensification of storms. Operational airplanes   
   such as NOAA's P-3s and the Air Force's C-130s are hurricane hunters, and fly   
   missions into the heart of storms to collect valuable airborne data sets.   
   Additionally, NOAA's Sensing Hazards with Operational Unmanned Technology   
   (SHOUT) program utilizes a NASA unmanned Global Hawk aircraft to observe and   
   predict high impact oceanic weather.   
       
   You can also get a view from an eye in the sky. The Global Precipitation   
   Measurement (GPM) Core Observatory, a joint mission between NASA and the Japan   
   Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA), launched in February 2014 and carries   
   instruments that show precipitation location and intensity at higher   
   resolutions than were previously available.   
       
   Microwave imagers such as the one onboard GPM can look through the cloud tops   
   to observe where and how much precipitation occurs. Additionally, GPM's   
   Dual-frequency Precipitation Radar provides a 3D view of precipitation   
   structure.   
       
   Dalia Kirschbaum, a deputy project scientist for GPM says, "Images from GPM   
   and similar sensors are posted on the internet in near real-time so   
   forecasters can immediately see the latest data."   
       
   An upcoming NASA mission aims to improve storm intensity forecasting even   
   more. The Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System (CYGNSS) is scheduled to   
   launch in 2016. CYGNSS's eight micro-satellites will utilize Global   
   Positioning System (GPS) signals to make surface wind measurements. Direct GPS   
   signals will pinpoint CYGNSS observatory positions, while GPS signals   
   reflected off of the ocean surface will indicate wind speed based on how much   
   the winds rough up that surface (the stronger the winds, the rougher the ocean   
   surface).   
       
   CYGNSS will be able to measure winds in heavy rain regions inside the storm   
   where current wind-sensing satellites have problems, and will provide much   
   more frequent observations compared to the once- or twice-a-day measurements   
   from current sensors.   
       
   Earth-orbiting satellites: helping take the surprise out of hurricane season   
   since the 1960s.   
       
   For more information about hurricane season in ever-improving detail, visit   
   science.nasa.gov.   
       
       
   Regards,   
       
   Roger   
      
   --- DB 3.99 + W10 (1607)   
    * Origin: NCS BBS - Houma, LoUiSiAna (1:3828/7)