Getting Ready for the Next Big Solar Storm   
   June 21, 2011:   
       
   In Sept. 1859, on the eve of a below-average1 solar cycle, the sun unleashed   
   one of the most powerful storms in centuries. The underlying flare was so   
   unusual, researchers still aren't sure how to categorize it. The blast   
   peppered Earth with the most energetic protons in half-a-millennium, induced   
   electrical currents that set telegraph offices on fire, and sparked Northern   
   Lights over Cuba and Hawaii.   
       
   This week, officials have gathered at the National Press Club in Washington DC   
   to ask themselves a simple question: What if it happens again?   
       
   "A similar storm today might knock us for a loop," says Lika Guhathakurta, a   
   solar physicist at NASA headquarters. "Modern society depends on high-tech   
   systems such as smart power grids, GPS, and satellite communications--all of   
   which are vulnerable to solar storms."   
       
   She and more than a hundred others are attending the fifth annual Space   
   Weather Enterprise Forum-"SWEF" for short.  The purpose of SWEF is to raise   
   awareness of space weather and its effects on society especially among policy   
   makers and emergency responders.  Attendees come from the US Congress, FEMA,   
   power companies, the United Nations, NASA, NOAA and more.   
       
   As 2011 unfolds, the sun is once again on the eve of a below-average solar   
   cycle-at least that's what forecasters are saying.  The "Carrington event" of   
   1859 (named after astronomer Richard Carrington, who witnessed the instigating   
   flare) reminds us that strong storms can occur even when the underlying cycle   
   is nominally weak.   
       
   In 1859 the worst-case scenario was a day or two without telegraph messages   
   and a lot of puzzled sky watchers on tropical islands.   
       
   In 2011 the situation would be more serious. An avalanche of blackouts carried   
   across continents by long-distance power lines could last for weeks to months   
   as engineers struggle to repair damaged transformers. Planes and ships   
   couldn't trust GPS units for navigation.  Banking and financial networks might   
   go offline, disrupting commerce in a way unique to the Information Age.    
   According to a 2008 report from the National Academy of Sciences, a   
   century-class solar storm could have the economic impact of 20 hurricane   
   Katrinas.   
       
   As policy makers meet to learn about this menace, NASA researchers a few miles   
   away are actually doing something about it:   
       
   "We can now track the progress of solar storms in 3 dimensions as the storms   
   bear down on Earth," says Michael Hesse, chief of the GSFC Space Weather Lab   
   and a speaker at the forum.  "This sets the stage for actionable space weather   
   alerts that could preserve power grids and other high-tech assets during   
   extreme periods of solar activity."   
       
   They do it using data from a fleet of NASA spacecraft surrounding the sun.   
   Analysts at the lab feed the information into a bank of supercomputers for   
   processing.  Within hours of a major eruption, the computers spit out a 3D   
   movie showing where the storm will go, which planets and spacecraft it will   
   hit, and predicting when the impacts will occur.  This kind of "interplanetary   
   forecast" is unprecedented in the short history of space weather forecasting.   
       
   "This is a really exciting time to work as a space weather forecaster," says   
   Antti Pulkkinen, a researcher at the Space Weather Lab.  "The emergence of   
   serious physics-based space weather models is putting us in a position to   
   predict if something major will happen."   
       
   Some of the computer models are so sophisticated, they can even predict   
   electrical currents flowing in the soil of Earth when a solar storm strikes.   
   These currents are what do the most damage to power transformers.  An   
   experimental project named "Solar Shield" led by Pulkkinen aims to pinpoint   
   transformers in greatest danger of failure during any particular storm.   
       
   "Disconnecting a specific transformer for a few hours could forestall weeks of   
   regional blackouts," says Pulkkinen.   
       
   Another SWEF speaker, John Allen of NASA's Space Operations Mission   
   Directorate, pointed out that while people from all walks of life can be   
   affected by space weather, no one is out on the front lines quite like   
   astronauts.   
       
   "Astronauts are routinely exposed to four times as much radiation as   
   industrial radiation workers on Earth," he says.  "It's a serious occupational   
   hazard."   
       
   NASA keeps careful track of each astronaut's accumulated dosage throughout   
   their careers.  Every launch, every space walk, every solar flare is carefully   
   accounted for.  If an astronaut gets too close to the limits ... he or she   
   might not be allowed out of the space station!  Accurate space weather alerts   
   can help keep these exposures under control by, e.g., postponing spacewalks   
   when flares are likely.   
       
   Speaking at the forum, Allen called for a new kind of forecast: "We could use   
   All Clear alerts. In addition to knowing when it's dangerous to go outside,   
   we'd also like to know when it's safe.  This is another frontier for   
   forecasters--not only telling us when a sunspot will erupt, but also when it   
   won't."   
       
   The educational mission of SWEF is key to storm preparedness. As Lika   
   Guhathakurta and colleague Dan Baker of the University of Colorado asked in a   
   June 17th New York Times op-ed: "What good are space weather alerts if people   
   don't understand them and won't react to them?"   
       
   By spreading the word, SWEF will help.   
       
   More information about the meeting, including a complete program of speakers,   
   may be found at the SWEF 2011 home page.   
       
       
   Author: Dr. Tony Phillips | Credit: Science@NASA   
       
   More Information   
   Footnote:1 The solar cycle of 1859 (Solar Cycle 10) was typical of 19th   
   century solar cycles--that is to say, weak. Solar cycles of the 19th century   
   were far below average compared to the intense solar cycles of the Space Age.    
   Solar Cycle 24, in progress now, is a throw-back, expected to be similar in   
   sunspot count to Solar Cycle 10.   
       
   How's the Weather on the Sun?  -- New York Times Op-ed   
       
   Integrated Space Weather Analysis System -- from the GSFC Space Weather   
   Laboratory   
       
       
   Regards,   
       
   Roger   
      
   --- D'Bridge 3.62   
    * Origin: NCS BBS (1:3828/7)