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   In the long run, aviation companies will be less able to go green as a result   
   of a shortage of sustainable fuels. According to a study by the Netherlands   
   Aerospace Center and TU Delft, there is a risk of a shortage of raw materials   
   from 2035. In concrete terms, this would mean that by 2050 greenhouse gas   
   emissions will have decreased by only 40 percent compared to the situation   
   where aircraft continue to use fossil kerosene.   
       
   According to the researchers, the limited availability of European raw   
   materials needed for the production of sustainable aviation fuels (SAF) is an   
   obstacle to achieving the blending targets proposed by the European   
   Commission. With sufficient availability of raw materials, emissions will be   
   two times lower, according to the researchers. "From 2035, we will see a   
   significant and growing gap between supply and expected demand," said Johan   
   Kos, project leader and lead author of the study.   
       
   In the conclusions, the researchers take two situations into account. In one   
   of them, aircraft powered by green hydrogen will be deployed on short and   
   medium distances from 2035. In the other case, such aircraft are not deployed,   
   and instead additional flights are flown with aircraft at SAF.   
       
   Other climate effects such as the influence of water vapor and soot have not   
   been studied. According to the researchers, this should also be investigated   
   in order to make a more complete estimate of the possible contribution of   
   hydrogen-powered aircraft and SAF to climate neutral aviation.   
      
   --- DB4 - 20220519   
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