MSGID: 2:292/854 1a192449   
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   Russian commercial aviation is expected to suffer from lack of maintenance due   
   to Western sanctions within months. Within a few years, most commercial   
   aircraft will be completely grounded as major aircraft manufacturers Boeing   
   and Airbus stop supplying spare parts to Russia.   
       
   "They'll be able to fly pretty well for the next six months to a year, but   
   then parts start to break and you need replacements, and you start to have   
   safety issues," Jefferies bank analyst Sheila Kahyaoglu said at a meeting on   
   the consequences of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.   
       
   Commercial aircraft require heavy maintenance, which is usually done every six   
   years, and will be affected by the sanctions because the required parts will   
   not be available, Kahyaoglu said. "People will then no longer be able to fly   
   in Russia.   
       
   "Russia has 789 commercial aircraft. They account for about 2.7 percent of the   
   global fleet. The Russian airline Aeroflot has 187 aircraft with an average   
   age of 6.3 years, according to its website.   
       
   Most aircraft operated by Russian airlines are leased from foreign leasing   
   companies, including AerCap Holdings, the largest aircraft leasing company in   
   the world. The Russian authorities will keep a number of aircraft themselves.   
   However, the fate of the rest of the fleet worth about 10 billion dollars is   
   uncertain.   
       
   According to Kahyaoglu, there is little hope that foreign owners will be able   
   to retrieve their planes from Russia. "Those planes will be worthless in six   
   years because they can't get the parts anymore.   
       
   "As of March 10, according to consultancy IBA, there were 523 aircraft from   
   foreign lessors in Russia. Of these, 142 belong to AerCap Holdings, a Dutch   
   public company headquartered in Dublin, and 35 to SMBC Aviation Capital, which   
   is also Dublin-based and Japanese-owned. Under the sanctions of the European   
   Union, the aircraft leasing companies have until March 28 to cancel the   
   contracts in Russia.   
      
   --- DB4 - 20220222   
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