XPost: uk.radio.amateur, uk.politics.misc, uk.d-i-y 
 From: gtyr@gmail.com 
  
 "Col"  wrote in message 
 news:h0jqo1F6jpaU1@mid.individual.net... 
 > On 13/10/2019 13:16, Omega wrote: 
 >> On 13/10/2019 12:49, Col wrote: 
 >>> On 13/10/2019 12:18, nightjar wrote: 
 >>>> On 12/10/2019 15:40, Stephen Cole wrote: 
 >>>>> Dave Plowman (News)  wrote: 
 >>>>>> In article , 
 >>>>>>     Cursitor Doom  wrote: 
 >>>>>>> I still have a legitimate interest, mate. And if there's another 
 >>>>>>> Referendum I'll be voting in it again, same as before, just like 
 >>>>>>> everyone else who voted Leave - plus not a few former Remainers 
 >>>>>>> who've 
 >>>>>>> seen the light over the last 3 years. 
 >>>>>> 
 >>>>>> Oddly, most the polls seem to show the opposite has happened. 
 >>>>>> 
 >>>>> 
 >>>>> That€€€s no surprise as the electorate has changed; a million or more 
 >>>>> dead 
 >>>>> Leave voters and a couple million freshly-minted teenage voters since 
 >>>>> June 
 >>>>> 2016. The longer that Brexit is fobbed off before a 2nd referendum the 
 >>>>> more 
 >>>>> the scales will tip toward Remain. 
 >>>>> 
 >>>> 
 >>>> It is more complicated than that. 
 >>>> 
 >>>> As the population ages, it tends to get more right wing, so the ones 
 >>>> that die off are replaced by others and the balance due to age remains 
 >>>> much the same over time. OTOH, there is a generational effect, with 
 >>>> each generation currently tending to be slightly more left wing than 
 >>>> the one before. That means that, although the older a generation gets 
 >>>> the more right wing, on average, it becomes, it doesn't become quite as 
 >>>> right wing as the one before it. 
 >>>> 
 >>>> However, to add to all that, people with higher levels of education (A 
 >>>> level or above) appear to be more likely to support remain and the 
 >>>> overall level of education of the population is rising a few percent 
 >>>> each year. 
 >>>> 
 >>>> The net effect is that there will be a trend towards greater support 
 >>>> for remain, but I'm not sure that 3-4 years is long enough for that to 
 >>>> make a significant difference. 
 >>>> 
 >>>> Of greater influence are probably dissatisfaction with the mess that 
 >>>> the Brexiteers have made of the process so far and a growing 
 >>>> realisation of just how much of the Leave campaign was pure fantasy. 
 >>>> 
 >>> 
 >>> I have always thought that there was a degree of complacency amongst 
 >>> remainers during the referendum. The polls always seemed to show a 
 >>> reasonably comfortable lead for remain and I think relatively few people 
 >>> genuinely thought that leave would win, so some remainers probably 
 >>> stayed at home. 
 >>> 
 >>> If there is a second referendum then there would certainly be no 
 >>> complacency! 
 >>> 
 >> 
 >> 
 >> Conversely,  *ALL* the polls at the time of the Referendum, said Remain 
 >> would win so some Brexiters may have displayed the very same complacency 
 >> you describe? 
 >> 
 >> "If Remain are bound to win no point in my voting to leave"! 
 > 
 > That is the other side of the coin of course. 
 > Although I do wonder if voting for change, which Brexit most certainly is, 
 > is more of an incentive to to than simply 'more of the same' as voting 
 > remain would be, all other things being equal. 
 > No way of ever accurately quantifying this of course. 
 > 
 >> Plus!  There are many people in my experience who like to be seen voting 
 >> for the winning side, youngsters especially love to be 'liked' just look 
 >> at their puerile social media pages!  Their are more youngsters topping 
 >> themselves simply because they have gained dislikes on social media! 
 >> 
 >> In other words, how many people voted stay because the 'polls' suggested 
 >> they would appear to be the winners. 
 > 
 > If anyone voted on that pretext I would serious question their maturity to 
 > have the responsibility of being able to vote in the first place. 
 > 
 >> Once an election or referendum, as in this case, has been planned, then I 
 >> believe absolutely no more results of 'polls' should be made to the 
 >> public until the polling booths close!  It would be a small start in 
 >> making people think for themselves instead of feeling a need to belong to 
 >> the 'right' tribe! 
 > 
 > There is some merit in that. I believe that certain European countries do 
 > this. 
 > No opinion polls to be published during election campaigns. 
 > 
 >> I have said for a long time now, if there was a mechanism to bring in a 
 >> second referendum, Brexiters will wipe the floor with a majority though 
 >> whatever the count, that would put us back to day one when the Remainers 
 >> would refute yet another democratic vote! 
 >> 
 > 
 > I believe that remain would win 2nd time round however as a remainer I 
 > would accept the result if leave won. I obviously wouldn't like it but at 
 > least this time the vote would be based upon a far better understanding of 
 > what Brexit actually entailed. Whatever deal is eventually agreed, or 
 > indeed no deal. 
  
 We still don€€€t really know what a no deal brexit would be like 
 or even what the EU might cave on to avoid a no deal brexit 
 which they clearly hate the idea of. 
  
 --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05 
  * Origin: you cannot sedate... all the things you hate (1:229/2)