XPost: uk.radio.amateur, uk.politics.misc, uk.d-i-y 
 From: reddwarfer@btinternet.com 
  
 On 13/10/2019 13:16, Omega wrote: 
 > On 13/10/2019 12:49, Col wrote: 
 >> On 13/10/2019 12:18, nightjar wrote: 
 >>> On 12/10/2019 15:40, Stephen Cole wrote: 
 >>>> Dave Plowman (News)  wrote: 
 >>>>> In article , 
 >>>>> €€€€€€ Cursitor Doom  wrote: 
 >>>>>> I still have a legitimate interest, mate. And if there's another 
 >>>>>> Referendum I'll be voting in it again, same as before, just like 
 >>>>>> everyone else who voted Leave - plus not a few former Remainers 
 >>>>>> who've 
 >>>>>> seen the light over the last 3 years. 
 >>>>> 
 >>>>> Oddly, most the polls seem to show the opposite has happened. 
 >>>>> 
 >>>> 
 >>>> That€€€s no surprise as the electorate has changed; a million or more 
 >>>> dead 
 >>>> Leave voters and a couple million freshly-minted teenage voters 
 >>>> since June 
 >>>> 2016. The longer that Brexit is fobbed off before a 2nd referendum 
 >>>> the more 
 >>>> the scales will tip toward Remain. 
 >>>> 
 >>> 
 >>> It is more complicated than that. 
 >>> 
 >>> As the population ages, it tends to get more right wing, so the ones 
 >>> that die off are replaced by others and the balance due to age 
 >>> remains much the same over time. OTOH, there is a generational 
 >>> effect, with each generation currently tending to be slightly more 
 >>> left wing than the one before. That means that, although the older a 
 >>> generation gets the more right wing, on average, it becomes, it 
 >>> doesn't become quite as right wing as the one before it. 
 >>> 
 >>> However, to add to all that, people with higher levels of education 
 >>> (A level or above) appear to be more likely to support remain and the 
 >>> overall level of education of the population is rising a few percent 
 >>> each year. 
 >>> 
 >>> The net effect is that there will be a trend towards greater support 
 >>> for remain, but I'm not sure that 3-4 years is long enough for that 
 >>> to make a significant difference. 
 >>> 
 >>> Of greater influence are probably dissatisfaction with the mess that 
 >>> the Brexiteers have made of the process so far and a growing 
 >>> realisation of just how much of the Leave campaign was pure fantasy. 
 >>> 
 >> 
 >> I have always thought that there was a degree of complacency amongst 
 >> remainers during the referendum. The polls always seemed to show a 
 >> reasonably comfortable lead for remain and I think relatively few 
 >> people genuinely thought that leave would win, so some remainers 
 >> probably stayed at home. 
 >> 
 >> If there is a second referendum then there would certainly be no 
 >> complacency! 
 >> 
 > 
 > 
 > Conversely,€€ *ALL* the polls at the time of the Referendum, said Remain 
 > would win so some Brexiters may have displayed the very same complacency 
 > you describe? 
 > 
 > "If Remain are bound to win no point in my voting to leave"! 
  
 That is the other side of the coin of course. 
 Although I do wonder if voting for change, which Brexit most certainly 
 is, is more of an incentive to to than simply 'more of the same' as 
 voting remain would be, all other things being equal. 
 No way of ever accurately quantifying this of course. 
  
 > Plus!€€ There are many people in my experience who like to be seen voting 
 > for the winning side, youngsters especially love to be 'liked' just look 
 > at their puerile social media pages!€€ Their are more youngsters topping 
 > themselves simply because they have gained dislikes on social media! 
 > 
 > In other words, how many people voted stay because the 'polls' suggested 
 > they would appear to be the winners. 
  
 If anyone voted on that pretext I would serious question their maturity 
 to have the responsibility of being able to vote in the first place. 
  
 > Once an election or referendum, as in this case, has been planned, then 
 > I believe absolutely no more results of 'polls' should be made to the 
 > public until the polling booths close!€€ It would be a small start in 
 > making people think for themselves instead of feeling a need to belong 
 > to the 'right' tribe! 
  
 There is some merit in that. I believe that certain European countries 
 do this. 
 No opinion polls to be published during election campaigns. 
  
 > I have said for a long time now, if there was a mechanism to bring in a 
 > second referendum, Brexiters will wipe the floor with a majority though 
 > whatever the count, that would put us back to day one when the Remainers 
 > would refute yet another democratic vote! 
 > 
  
 I believe that remain would win 2nd time round however as a remainer I 
 would accept the result if leave won. I obviously wouldn't like it but 
 at least this time the vote would be based upon a far better 
 understanding of what Brexit actually entailed. Whatever deal is 
 eventually agreed, or indeed no deal. 
  
  
 -- 
 Col 
  
 --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05 
  * Origin: you cannot sedate... all the things you hate (1:229/2)