From: kylix_is@yahoo.co.uk 
  
 On Tue, 08 Oct 2019 14:08:19 +0100, Pamela  
 wrote: 
  
 >On 13:00  8 Oct 2019, MM  wrote: 
 > 
 >> On Mon, 7 Oct 2019 14:09:11 +0100, "tim..."  
 >> wrote: 
 >> 
 >>> 
 >>> 
 >>>"MM"  wrote in message 
 >>>news:eb1mpetc26bcll9h36qgcb3e5qreihjgr1@4ax.com... 
 >>>>  
 >>>> First posted on 2.10.19 but I'm going to repost it each and every day 
 >>>> until a no-deal crash out of the EU is (hopefully) avoided: 
 >>>> 
 >>>> Just for now, please: 
 >>>> Forget revocation of Article 50...not going to happen, let's face it. 
 >>>> Forget a second referendum, too many obstacles in the way. 
 >>>> Forget who wins the next General Election. 
 >>>> That issue decides only which party gets to 'administer' a frightful 
 >>>> mess of a situation. 
 >>>> 
 >>>> Please, just for a moment, let's focus on No Deal. 
 >>>> 
 >>>> No deal = instant 3rd country status. 
 >>> 
 >>>and what does that mean? 
 >>> 
 >>>Are you suggesting it's a bad thing? 
 >>> 
 >>>please show your working 
 >>> 
 >>>> No deal = trade deals no longer valid within the EU 27 countries, all 
 >>>> of whom now have a veto on ratification of any treaty. 
 >>> 
 >>>As they will if we leave with a deal 
 >>> 
 >>>> No deal = UK no longer a member of any EU-negotiated trade deals, 
 >>>> these all need to be renegotiated again. 
 >>> 
 >>>This is already in hand.  About half have already been agreed.  More 
 >>>will do so once they see that we are actually leaving (what's the point 
 >>>of them spending diplomat's time in negotiating for a deal, that will be 
 >>>torn up if we stay in) 
 >>> 
 >>>> No deal = We have to enter into treaties/trade deals from the outside, 
 >>>> wanting to get in...reducing our leverage. 
 >>> 
 >>>No, it increases our leverage because we have the option of walking 
 >>>away, so the other side can't just give us a bum deal and expect us to 
 >>>just roll over 
 >>> 
 >>>That most certainly isn't the case with May's deal 
 >>> 
 >>>> No deal = initially trading on WTO terms. 
 >>>> Increased bureaucracy and checks and tariffs = anything but 
 >>>> frictionless trade. 
 >>> 
 >>>Yes, that's understood by those advocating it 
 >>> 
 >>>> No deal = resentment. 
 >>> 
 >>>and the current deal doesn't? 
 >>> 
 >>>> And we will be the ones asking for a trade deal 
 >>>> with the EU as an independent country. 
 >>> 
 >>>But they will need a deal too as No Deal harms them. 
 >>> 
 >>>>First things to be discussed: 
 >>>> The Irish Border 
 >>> 
 >>>Of course 
 >>> 
 >>>but it will be discussed by parties with equal strength - i.e. either 
 >>>side can walk away if it isn't resolved 
 >>> 
 >>>At the moment the EU are saying "this is the arrangement that we want 
 >>>and you have to accept it, tough titties if you don't like it!". 
 >>> 
 >>>> The Financial Settlement 
 >>> 
 >>>Who cares.  It's trivial in the great scheme of things. 
 >>> 
 >>>> Citizens' Rights. 
 >>> 
 >>>Good, we want agreement on that at least as much as they do 
 >>> 
 >>>> No Deal = years and years of excruciatingly slow to finalise trade 
 >>>> deals. 
 >>> 
 >>>Why? 
 >>> 
 >>>IMHO if we don't get a deal within 2-3 years we will never do so.  All 
 >>>the pain on our side will have been spent and we will have moved on to 
 >>>other trading relationships. 
 >>> 
 >>>> No Deal = Getting new deals on worse terms than we had with and within 
 >>>> the EU. 
 >>> 
 >>>Why's that then? 
 >>> 
 >>>Again show your working 
 >>> 
 >>>Are you talking about 3rd countries or EU countries 
 >>> 
 >>>For many countries we will get a better deal than we will from inside 
 >>>the EU because we are quite happy to let these third countries sell us 
 >>>their agricultural produce (which in some cases is all that they have to 
 >>>trade with us) whereas from within, the EU is reluctant to open up 
 >>>agriculture to free competition and vetoes deals that go too far in that 
 >>>direction. 
 >>> 
 >>>> No deal does not mean that we "Got Brexit Done" 
 >>> 
 >>>Yes it does. 
 >>> 
 >>>> Getting Brexit Done through no deal is only the beginning.... of more 
 >>>> Brexit (The Irish Border, The Financial Settlement and 
 >>>> Citizens' Rights will need to be negotiated before any trade deals 
 >>>> will be countenanced. 
 >>> 
 >>>No  The Irish border will be resolved of the overall trade deal (as it 
 >>>should have been in the leaving negotiations) 
 >>> 
 >>>There will be no "the Irish border has to be settled first" condition. 
 >>>The EU will no longer have any cards to force that as a policy. 
 >>> 
 >>>> No deal leads to an 8% drop in GDP according to the impartial and 
 >>>> independent OBR. 
 >>> 
 >>>1) that not a drop of GDP, it's a lower rise than would otherwise occur. 
 >>> 
 >>>2) It's 8% over many years and predicated upon there being a slower rise 
 >>>in population than otherwise.  Overall PC GDP stays about the same. 
 >>>TMITS will not notice. 
 >>> 
 >>>> It's hard for us to imagine things being any 
 >>>> different to how they are right now. 
 >>> 
 >>>Of course things will be different 
 >>> 
 >>>but there will be good things to go with the bad. 
 >>> 
 >>>> We people are like that. But 
 >>>> things we take for granted can and will change, for the worse, only 
 >>>> then will we be up in arms about it. We imagine tomorrow will be like 
 >>>> today, after a no-deal it won't be - there will be shortages of some 
 >>>> medicines, 
 >>> 
 >>>will there? 
 >>> 
 >>>Well we'll just have to wait to find out, won't we. 
 >>> 
 >>>> for example, the government themselves admit this. 
 >>>> Shortages usually lead to higher prices too. 
 >>>> 
 >>>> No Deal is the real enemy of the people, in my opinion. 
 >>> 
 >>>It's the enemy of the elites for sure.  Not convinced it's the enemy of 
 >>>the people 
 >>> 
 >>>> Why are they even considering No Deal? 
 >>> 
 >>>because the EU haven't offered us an acceptable deal 
 >>> 
 >>>and we don't want to get tuned over and shafted,. 
 >>> 
 >>>>At the moment we should be 
 >>>> worried and angry that they are even contemplating it. 
 >>> 
 >>>why? 
 >>> 
 >>>> There's a reason countries don't trade on WTO terms, 
 >>> 
 >>>but 100s do 
 >>> 
 >>>> and that's that 
 >>>> you normally get much better terms as part of a trade deal. 
 >>> 
 >>>If this Trade deal is such a great thing then the EU will come running 
 >>>to us for one, won't they 
 >>> 
 >>>just like they are running to New Zealand (the 53rd largest country in 
 >>>the world) for one, when the reality is that we sell bugger all to NZ 
 >>> 
 >>>> But after 
 >>>> a crash out, it will take years to negotiate even simple deals, 
 >>> 
 >>>why? 
 >>> 
 >>>Trade deal can, and have been done in 2-3 years 
 >>> 
 >>>There's no reason to suspect that willing parties can't do that just 
 >>>because we have "Crashed out" 
 >>> 
 >>>> there 
 >>>> are so many details to consider in each and every good listed, and 
  
 [continued in next message] 
  
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