XPost: uk.radio.amateur, uk.politics.misc, uk.d-i-y 
 From: jkb675@gmail.com 
  
 "Col"  wrote in message 
 news:h0ghbfFfvpvU1@mid.individual.net... 
 > On 13/10/2019 12:18, nightjar wrote: 
 >> On 12/10/2019 15:40, Stephen Cole wrote: 
 >>> Dave Plowman (News)  wrote: 
 >>>> In article , 
 >>>>     Cursitor Doom  wrote: 
 >>>>> I still have a legitimate interest, mate. And if there's another 
 >>>>> Referendum I'll be voting in it again, same as before, just like 
 >>>>> everyone else who voted Leave - plus not a few former Remainers who've 
 >>>>> seen the light over the last 3 years. 
 >>>> 
 >>>> Oddly, most the polls seem to show the opposite has happened. 
 >>>> 
 >>> 
 >>> That€€€s no surprise as the electorate has changed; a million or more 
 dead 
 >>> Leave voters and a couple million freshly-minted teenage voters since 
 >>> June 
 >>> 2016. The longer that Brexit is fobbed off before a 2nd referendum the 
 >>> more 
 >>> the scales will tip toward Remain. 
 >>> 
 >> 
 >> It is more complicated than that. 
 >> 
 >> As the population ages, it tends to get more right wing, so the ones that 
 >> die off are replaced by others and the balance due to age remains much 
 >> the same over time. OTOH, there is a generational effect, with each 
 >> generation currently tending to be slightly more left wing than the one 
 >> before. That means that, although the older a generation gets the more 
 >> right wing, on average, it becomes, it doesn't become quite as right wing 
 >> as the one before it. 
 >> 
 >> However, to add to all that, people with higher levels of education (A 
 >> level or above) appear to be more likely to support remain and the 
 >> overall level of education of the population is rising a few percent each 
 >> year. 
 >> 
 >> The net effect is that there will be a trend towards greater support for 
 >> remain, but I'm not sure that 3-4 years is long enough for that to make a 
 >> significant difference. 
 >> 
 >> Of greater influence are probably dissatisfaction with the mess that the 
 >> Brexiteers have made of the process so far and a growing realisation of 
 >> just how much of the Leave campaign was pure fantasy. 
 >> 
 > 
 > I have always thought that there was a degree of complacency amongst 
 > remainers during the referendum. The polls always seemed to show a 
 > reasonably comfortable lead for remain and I think relatively few people 
 > genuinely thought that leave would win, so some remainers probably stayed 
 > at home. 
 > 
 > If there is a second referendum then there would certainly be no 
 > complacency! 
  
 But likely a lot more heartily sick of the entire fiasco 
 who wont bother to vote now that they have seen 
 parliament ignore the result of the first referendum. 
  
 And there wont be a second referendum anyway, 
  
 --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05 
  * Origin: you cannot sedate... all the things you hate (1:229/2)