XPost: uk.radio.amateur, uk.politics.misc, uk.d-i-y 
 From: reddwarfer@btinternet.com 
  
 On 13/10/2019 12:18, nightjar wrote: 
 > On 12/10/2019 15:40, Stephen Cole wrote: 
 >> Dave Plowman (News)  wrote: 
 >>> In article , 
 >>> €€€€€€ Cursitor Doom  wrote: 
 >>>> I still have a legitimate interest, mate. And if there's another 
 >>>> Referendum I'll be voting in it again, same as before, just like 
 >>>> everyone else who voted Leave - plus not a few former Remainers who've 
 >>>> seen the light over the last 3 years. 
 >>> 
 >>> Oddly, most the polls seem to show the opposite has happened. 
 >>> 
 >> 
 >> That€€€s no surprise as the electorate has changed; a million or more dead 
 >> Leave voters and a couple million freshly-minted teenage voters since 
 >> June 
 >> 2016. The longer that Brexit is fobbed off before a 2nd referendum the 
 >> more 
 >> the scales will tip toward Remain. 
 >> 
 > 
 > It is more complicated than that. 
 > 
 > As the population ages, it tends to get more right wing, so the ones 
 > that die off are replaced by others and the balance due to age remains 
 > much the same over time. OTOH, there is a generational effect, with each 
 > generation currently tending to be slightly more left wing than the one 
 > before. That means that, although the older a generation gets the more 
 > right wing, on average, it becomes, it doesn't become quite as right 
 > wing as the one before it. 
 > 
 > However, to add to all that, people with higher levels of education (A 
 > level or above) appear to be more likely to support remain and the 
 > overall level of education of the population is rising a few percent 
 > each year. 
 > 
 > The net effect is that there will be a trend towards greater support for 
 > remain, but I'm not sure that 3-4 years is long enough for that to make 
 > a significant difference. 
 > 
 > Of greater influence are probably dissatisfaction with the mess that the 
 > Brexiteers have made of the process so far and a growing realisation of 
 > just how much of the Leave campaign was pure fantasy. 
 > 
  
 I have always thought that there was a degree of complacency amongst 
 remainers during the referendum. The polls always seemed to show a 
 reasonably comfortable lead for remain and I think relatively few people 
 genuinely thought that leave would win, so some remainers probably 
 stayed at home. 
  
 If there is a second referendum then there would certainly be no 
 complacency! 
  
 -- 
 Col 
  
 --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05 
  * Origin: you cannot sedate... all the things you hate (1:229/2)