
| Msg # 2 of 620 on ZZUK4446, Thursday 10-29-25, 2:22 |
| From: NY TRANSFER NEWS |
| To: ALL |
| Subj: Iraq/UK: Leaks and War's Legality (8/14) |
[continued from previous message] Deputy Prime Minister, was being chased from a press conference by a reporter brandishing a copy of the advice and shouting: 'Do you want this? You haven't read it.' The farce overshadowed the unfortunate fact that the full 13-page legal advice did not prove Howard's central charge. Admittedly, Goldsmith's conclusion, in paragraph 28, that 'a reasonable case can be made' for war without a second UN resolution was well short of a ringing endorsement, but neither did he say the war was unlawful. Blair had not lied when he said the Attorney General had ruled the war legal in the end - although he had omitted to mention that the definitive verdict was certainly not there as late as 7 March. By the time Blair took the podium in the basement of the financial wire service Bloombergs' City office on Thursday morning, ostensibly to launch the party's business manifesto, it was clear there would be few questions about corporation tax. Blair angrily dismissed the leaked document as a 'damp squib': asked why, in that case, it shouldn't be published in full, he startled the audience by announcing it might as well since 'you have probably got it all anyway'. But the crucial intervention came not from Blair, but from the man beside him. Asked if he, too, would have gone to war in Blair's position, Gordon Brown responded with a succinct: 'Yes.' The spontaneous applause came not from the bemused audience of businessmen, but from relieved Labour aides. Brown had passed up a golden chance to make personal capital out of the war - even though he could hardly have done otherwise in public. Hewitt, sharing the platform, could not resist exclaiming: 'Well done.' Help also came from an unexpected source. At his morning press conference, Howard was asked whether - given the same legal advice - he, too, would have invaded, he confirmed he would. The logic of his position was crumbling. On Thursday night, as the three leaders submitted to the David Dimbleby treatment on Question Time , Howard went still further, confirming he would have gone to war knowing there was no WMD. Saddam was still a threat, he said, and he favoured 'regime change-plus' - words anti-war voters love to hate. When Howard asked the Question Time audience how many people thought Blair had told the truth on Iraq, few hands shot up. And yet his decision to 'go negative' on Blair's character now looks like an own goal: a Populus poll yesterday showed that almost half of voters were less likely to vote Tory as a result. Whatever people think of Blair, they apparently don't want to hear it from Howard. The danger for Labour, however, comes not just from Howard. Charles Kennedy's stance on Iraq already puts him in pole position for anti-war votes: his mission now is to vacuum up floating voters, particularly women, who hate not the war, but the playground shrillness of debate about it. His trick of hovering statesmanlike over the fray - Kennedy has criticised both Howard's choice of language and Blair's angry dismissal of the legal advice as a 'damp squib' - may be trickier to maintain given his own party's latest election broadcast, which caricatures the Prime Minister as the boy who cried wolf over WMD. But in about half a dozen seats, such as Islington South or Hornsey and Wood Green in London, Labour strategists admit that the furore over the legal advice could be enough to swing them Kennedy's way. No wonder one minister, in a seat way down the Tories' hit list, is now writing two speeches for election night, one for winning and one for losing: 'It's undoubtedly close. Iraq, Blair and council tax are the three issues that keep coming up, and the answers I'm giving are not the sort that people want to hear.' Others on the front line, however, insist that minds are already made up about the war, legal advice or no legal advice. 'If people are going to [vote against me] on the war, they tend to have been very definite from the start,' says one experienced Labour MP fighting a stiff Lib Dem challenge. 'They have had a couple of years to think about it, after all.' There is, of course, an incentive for Labour to exaggerate the danger: if the election looks 'in the bag', as Alastair Campbell did not quite say last week, reluctant supporters will not bother to vote. A growing number of ministers are now arguing for an extended diet of humble pie, even if Labour is returned with a healthy majority. There must, they argue, be no triumphalism, and not just over Iraq: too many voters are angry and disillusioned about issues ranging from public services to immigration. 'If we get back with a reduced majority, we cannot have a scintilla of arrogance: he's got to show he's clocked it,' says one senior minister. Sedgemore's claims this weekend, in a GMTV interview, that 'hundreds' of MPs are poised to turn on the leader after the election are exaggerated, but his own mini-revolt is only one of several being planned on the left once the election is over. There are threats of a stalking horse candidate running against Blair if he refuses to resign forthwith: Bob Marshall Andrews MP, the maverick left-winger, has publicly spoken of 'serious movements' to change the leader. A string of left-wing MPs, dutifully silent during the election, are planning speeches in the first two weeks of May, calling for a radical change of direction for the party. Nonetheless, the threat of a revolt has been lessened by Brown and Blair's campaign rapprochement - and, in a shrunken parliamentary party, it may be uphill work to find the 82 MPs' signatures necessary for a coup. A majority of anything over 50, and Blair is probably safe: winning fewer than 209 seats, and Howard is not. But even a halved majority would rattle nerves. One Blairite minister gloomily predicts 'a bloodbath' after polling day, as recriminations are traded between Brown and Blair camps for lost seats: 'This is the calm before the storm. I may be wrong, but I'm worried it will be the two sides back at it again.' The young woman who stepped into Tony Blair's path as he finished his whirlwind tour of a nursing home in Risley, Northamptonshire, on Friday afternoon was nervous but emphatic. 'I just wanted to say, don't rise to the bait,' she told him, adding that she didn't want to get political but was upset by the tone of the Tory campaign. Blair must now hope that Iraq, for all the damage it has done in the past week, is now finished business, at least for the rest of the campaign. Today's revelations of the American meetings, the anger of Boyce and the faltering Labour lead in the polls will ensure that those around Blair continue to bite their nails as the last 96 hours of the campaign hove into view. Four days to go - four days during which Britain's longest serving Labour Prime Minister will wonder, as he races from town to town, speech to speech, interview to interview, if the result on 6 May is really in the bag. ~ Guardian Unlimited ) Guardian Newspapers Limited 2005 ============================== Article no. 5 ============================== http://observer.guardian.co.uk/politics/story/0,6903,1474276,00.html British military chief reveals new legal fears over Iraq war by Antony Barnett and Martin Bright Sunday May 1, 2005 Observer (London) The man who led Britain's armed forces into Iraq has said that Tony [continued in next message] --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05 * Origin: you cannot sedate... all the things you hate (1:229/2) |
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