XPost: ny.politics, nj.politics, ca.politics 
 XPost: alt.politics.democrats 
 From: tomwillette@N0SPAM.C0M 
  
 On Wed, 27 Oct 2004 18:21:33 GMT, Obwon  wrote: 
  
 >Newspaper Picks: An Analysis of the 2004 
 >Endorsements So Far 
 > 
 >By Greg Mitchell 
 > 
 >Published: October 26, 2004 3:20 PM EDT 
 > 
 >NEW YORK When the smoke clears next 
 >Wednesday (if it does) will anyone say that 
 >newspaper endorsements helped decide 
 >the next president? 
 > 
 >Yes, everyone knows newspaper picks in 
 >presidential races don't count for very 
 >much, but they do mean something. 
 >Surveys by E&P and others in previous 
 >years showed that roughly 5 to 10% of 
 >voters (or more) felt that editorials had 
 >some influence when they cast their ballots. 
 > 
 >In a battleground state that's not insignificant. 
 > 
 >So, without overstating that influence, let's 
 >examine what could happen next Tuesday 
 >in several key states. 
 > 
 >First, as we have detailed in our daily 
 >endorsement tally, Sen. John Kerry now 
 >holds a fairly narrow lead in the number of 
 >endorsements, but he has gained many more 
 >of the larger papers, holding about a 17 
 >million to 12 million edge by circulation. 
 > 
 >Most telling, however, is that at least 35 
 >papers that backed Bush in 2000 have now 
 >switched to Kerry, and another nine that 
 >supported Bush before have declared 
 >their neutrality this year. 
 > 
 >Only five so far have gone from Gore to Bush. 
 > 
 >This imbalance may be critical. There is a 
 >popular misperception that most newspaper 
 >endorsements inevitably go Democrat, but 
 >E&P surveys in the past have shown that 
 >the majority, in fact, back Republicans. 
 > 
 >This is true more for smaller newspapers, 
 >but even big-city metros are usually split. 
 >Seventy-two of the largest papers divided 
 >right down the middle in 2000. In 2004, the 
 >same papers (at least the ones that have 
 >announced their picks) favor Kerry by 
 >about a 3-2 margin. 
 > 
 >Now, on to a few swinging states, and 
 >some predictions, giving (perhaps) undue 
 >weight to editorial endorsements: 
 > 
 >FLORIDA: Bush is in big trouble here, at 
 >least if newspapers have any sway. Every 
 >single large paper has gone for Kerry, with 
 >the Orlando and Bradenton papers abandoning 
 >Bush and The Tampa Tribune (formerly for 
 >Dubya) sitting it out. This is how bad it is for 
 >the president: As far we know, his two 
 >biggest Sunshine State catches so far are 
 >the Ocala Star-Banner and The Ledger in 
 >Lakeland. 
 > 
 >So let's give this state to Kerry. In fact, if 
 >Bush pulls this one out, E&P promises 
 >never to give any weight to editorial 
 >endorsements in the future. 
 > 
 >PENNSYLVANIA: More bad news for Bush. 
 >As expected, the two Philly dailies and the 
 >Pittsburgh Post-Gazette backed Kerry, but 
 >The Morning Call in Allentown also switched 
 >to him, and the Scranton and Harrisburg 
 >papers, previously pro-Bush, declared 
 >neutrality. Bush did pick up switches in 
 >York and Easton, but we have to give this 
 >state to Kerry. 
 > 
 >COLORADO: With Dean Singleton taking 
 >over as publisher at The Denver Post, both 
 >of that city's papers lined up for Bush. Kerry 
 >picked up a switch in Boulder, but it's not 
 >enough. This state goes in the Bush column. 
 > 
 >MICHIGAN: Unlike in previous years, the 
 >Detroit papers are not split, with the 
 >Free-Press going for Kerry and the 
 >News, shockingly, sitting it out. Kerry 
 >also picked up switches in Flint and 
 >Muskegon. Score this for Kerry. 
 > 
 >OHIO: Too tough to call. Of the two big 
 >Bush papers from 2000, The Plain Dealer 
 >is now (officially) neutral and The 
 >Columbus Dispatch offered a Bush 
 >endorsement that was critical of the 
 >president. 
 > 
 >Elsewhere, Kerry gets Dayton, Toledo, 
 >and Akron, while Bush gets Cincinnati 
 >and Canton. 
 > 
 >IOWA: Kerry gets the Des Moines paper 
 >and a switch in Davenport. Bush gets 
 >Cedar Rapids. Give it to Kerry. 
 > 
 >MINNESOTA: Kerry grabbed the Minneapolis 
 >paper but the Saint Paul Pioneer Press has 
 >yet to make a call. 
 > 
 >OREGON: Did anyone notice that this state 
 >went from tossup to leaning left (according 
 >to the pundits) right after The Oregonian 
 >switched from Bush to Kerry? 
 > 
 >WASHINGTON: Ditto here, when The 
 >Seattle Times jumped to Kerry. The Dem 
 >now has both Seattle papers, plus 
 >Tacoma's. 
 > 
 >So who wins on Tuesday? If Kerry's 
 >newspaper boost in Florida, Michigan, 
 >and Pennsylvania means anything, he 
 >can afford to drop Ohio and still take 
 >home the big prize. 
 > 
 >But that€s a big "if." Stay tuned. 
 >--- 
 >Greg Mitchell (gmitchell@editorandpublisher.com) is 
 >editor of E&P and author of seven books on politics and 
 >history. 
  
 --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05 
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